077
FXUS62 KKEY 070317
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1017 PM EST THU MAR 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 922 PM EST THU MAR 6 2025
RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED THIS
EVENING AS WE ARE STILL POST-FRONTAL ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS. A
VERY COMFORTABLE AIR MASS IS SITTING OVER US, AND WE CAN SEE THIS
REFLECTED IN SOME OF THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. AS OF 9 PM EST,
VARIOUS OBSERVATION SITES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN SHOWED
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S, AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S.
ELEVATED NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES ANYWHERE FROM 15 TO NEAR 20 MPH
WERE REPORTED THIS EVENING, SO THOSE OF US WHO FELT CHILLY TO
BEGIN WITH WERE REALLY FEELING IT. THESE MODERATE BREEZES ARE THE
RESULT OF A LOCAL WIND SURGE, AND AS IT MOVES FARTHER AWAY,
BREEZES WILL TAPER OFF. NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB SHOWS ONLY A
FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS OUR SKY, AND OUR KBYX RADAR
IS VOID OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
OF NOTE, THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME ANOMALOUS PROPAGATION, OR
WHAT SOME MAY CALL "NOISE", OVER CUBA ON THE RADAR LOOP. THIS CAN
OCCUR FOR ANY NUMBER OF REASONS, USUALLY WHEN THE RADAR BEAM
INTERSECTS A TEMPERATURE INVERSION IN THE ATMOSPHERE, AND IT CAN
BE EASILY CONFUSED WITH PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE 00Z SOUNDING
FROM THIS EVENING, THERE IS A FAIRLY DEEP INVERSION IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, SO THIS IS LIKELY WHAT THE RADAR IS PICKING UP ON. THE
SOUNDING ALSO SAMPLED AN IMPRESSIVELY DRY AIR. PWAT CAME IN AT
0.37", AND IT LOOKS LIKE ALMOST NONE OF THAT MOISTURE IS IN OUR
MID LEVELS AS THE AVERAGE RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY
850MB AND 650MB WAS ONLY 3 PERCENT. IT IS NO WONDER WHY THE FEW
CLOUDS WE DO HAVE ARE SO HIGH UP.
THE ONLY UPDATE THAT WAS MADE TO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS THE
CANCELLATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS AND SEAS HAVE
FALLEN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN, THERE HAVE
BEEN NO CHANGES OR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 922 PM EST THU MAR 6 2025
THERE ARE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT, BUT SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE IN PLACE FOR ALL KEYS WATERS UNTIL
WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE. FROM SYNOPSIS, MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT OVER THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS, AND OFFSHORE
FLOW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL SUSTAIN MODERATE BREEZES BEFORE
SUNRISE. EXPECT SLACKENING BREEZES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE
VARIABLE CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE GULF ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FRESHEN BREEZES, AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. SHOWER CHANCES
ARE INCREASING, AND THE NEXT FRONT MAY BRING GREATER SHOWER
COVERAGE TO THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 922 PM EST THU MAR 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH
FRIDAY, EVEN WITH SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO TRACK
ACROSS LOCAL SKIES. NORTH CROSSWINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT WILL SLACKEN AND VEER AROUND THE COMPASS AS THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON PROGRESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 63 77 70 81 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 62 76 71 81 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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