480
FXUS62 KKEY 070932
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
432 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
IT HAS BEEN A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. KBYX RADAR
IS NOT DETECTING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AND GOES 16 NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY IS SHOWING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND
CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER 60S FOR THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS WITH THE
MID TO UPPER 50S FOR THE UPPER KEYS. IT WILL BE FEELING LIKE
WINTER OUT THERE AGAIN FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS ALSO
HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM WHERE THEY WERE WEDNESDAY EVENING
IN THE MID 70S. DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS AND THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LOWER KEYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. THIS IS LEADING TO MARINE PLATFORMS AROUND THE KEYS
OBSERVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH ISLAND
CHAIN COMMUNITIES OBSERVING NEAR 10 MPH.
FORECAST
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FIVE TO SIX DAYS CONTINUES TO BE ABLE TO
BE SUMMED UP QUITE EASILY. WE EXPECT TO BE ON A ROLLER COASTER
RIDE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH UPS AND DOWNS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
THE COOL SNAP THE KEYS ARE CURRENTLY ENDURING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT INTO THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC BY TONIGHT WHILE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S, THOUGH, THE WIND WILL
CONTINUE TO ABATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE SHIFTING FROM THE NORTH
TO NORTHEAST AND THEN TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN THIS THIS
MORNING DUE TO THE WIND BEING FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT, THEREFORE, LOWS WERE DIPPED DOWN
SLIGHTLY FROM NEAR 70 TO THE UPPER 60S TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT MAY BE ABLE TO OCCUR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS. VAST DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO NIL RAIN CHANCES FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL KEEP SOME SEMBLANCE OF CONTROL OVER
THE KEYS FOR THE WEEKEND AS WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. HOWEVER, DAYTIME HEATING ON THE MAINLAND
WILL ACT TO BIFURCATE THE RIDGE DURING THE DAY ON BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOONS LEADING TO A POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF VARIABLE BREEZES. OTHER THAN THAT, TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR SATURDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 80S FOR
SUNDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY. VAST DRY AIR ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
LEADING TO CONTINUED NIL RAIN CHANCES.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TIGHTLY
CLUSTER ON AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT
HEADS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA AND INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT, ITS
CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA AND THEN THROUGH THE KEYS SOMETIME
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHORT-
LIVED COOL SNAP TO MUCH OF FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. RAIN CHANCES
CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT (30%) AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE AND
MOISTURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE LOW
MATURES HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING, SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WHERE 40% POPS REMAIN. LOOKING AT MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS AS WELL AS STATISTICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, THE CHANCES
WERE CREEPING HIGHER FOR THUNDER SOMETIME IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY TIME FRAME. THEREFORE, THUNDER WAS INTRODUCED INTO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE DEEP GULF
WATERS AND THEN FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN ON SOUTH FOR MONDAY. ALSO,
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH
FURTHER FRESHENING EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST LEADING TO A WINDY PERIOD TO START THE NEW
WEEK.
ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN OUT INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN WILL GRADUALLY ABATE AS A
RESULT WHILE SHIFTING TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF A FAIRLY LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO THE FORECAST BEING DRIED OUT FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START COOL TO START
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT WILL REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL LEAD TO OFFSHORE
FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT, EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES SLIDING
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC, BREEZES WILL PEAK
OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND LULL IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREEZES MAY BRIEFLY GO VARIABLE
AT TIMES AS THE HIGH BIFURCATES OVER THE MAINLAND DURING THE DAY
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE KEYS WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
FRESHENING SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES SUNDAY NIGHT VEERING TO THE
NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES
ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND BECOME NORTH TO
NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE, THEN BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1917, THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.35" WAS
RECORDED AT KEY WEST. THIS WAS ALSO THE THIRD-WETTEST MARCH DAY ON
RECORD FOR KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 74 69 81 71 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 76 69 83 71 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MC
DATA ACQUISITION.....MC
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