291
FXUS62 KKEY 071956
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
256 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
THE FIRST FRIDAY OF MARCH WILL END UNEVENTFULLY OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS. KBYX RADAR SCANS DETECTED A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF BIRDS AND
ANOMALOUS ECHOES INSTEAD OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY, WHILE GOES 16
DAY CLOUD PHASE IMAGERY DETECTED VERY SPARSE CUMULUS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA. DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 50S
WITH HIGHS ALREADY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
OFFSHORE WINDS PLUMMETED TO GENTLE BREEZES, MAKING FOR A BEAUTIFUL
SPRING DAY ACROSS THE CWA.
ZOOMING OUT FROM THE ISLAND CHAIN, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS, CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY, WHICH WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THIS LOW IS NOT THE ONLY ONE PRESENT OVER
THE COUNTRY. A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
IS MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND DEVELOPING A COLD
FRONT IN THE PROCESS, WHICH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS KEY
WEST LATE THIS WEEKEND.
MODEL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING CONSENSUS ABOUT THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED
TO BRING MORE MOISTURE THAN THE COLD FRONT OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY
TO THE CWA, WARRANTING AN INCREASE TO 50 PERCENT POPS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SMALLER
SPREAD IN LOWS AND DEW POINTS POST-FRONT, OF ABOUT TWO TO THREE
DEGREES FOR BOTH, SO THE COLD SNAP ON TUESDAY MAY BE AT A SIMILAR
POTENCY TO THE ONE LAST NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS COLD FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MID WEEK. MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEAVILY AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES, IF YOU
HAPPEN TO BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. MODEL ENSEMBLES HINT AT
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS BY
NEXT FRIDAY, BUT THAT SORT OF PATTERN INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME MORE PERSISTENT OVER THE KEYS. STATISTICAL MODELS SHOW NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. IN OTHER WORDS,
IF YOU WANT DYNAMIC WEATHER AFTER NEXT MONDAY'S COLD FRONT, IT
WILL NOT BE NEAR KEY WEST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
FROM SYNOPSIS, BREEZES ARE SLACKENING TOWARDS GENTLE TO MODERATE
ACROSS THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOME
PERIODS OVER SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY MAY BECOME VARIABLE. A COLD
FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEKEND IS EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS THE KEYS WATERS SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY
WITH POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS AND RAPIDLY FRESHENING BREEZES. FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL MARINE
ZONES EARLY NEXT WEEK; HOWEVER, POST FRONT EXPECT BREEZES TO
SLACKEN TO MODERATE BY TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2025
THROUGH 08/18Z, PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH
EYW AND MTH.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1917, THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.35" WAS RECORDED
AT KEY WEST. THIS WAS ALSO THE THIRD-WETTEST MARCH DAY ON RECORD FOR
KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 68 82 71 83 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 70 81 72 83 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....KASPER
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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