643
FXUS62 KKEY 080932
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
432 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2025
A CALM NIGHT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. KBYX RADAR IS NOT
DETECTING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AND GOES 16 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LOW CUMULUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STRAITS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LAND BREEZE COMING OFF OF NORTHERN CUBA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DONE AN INTERESTING THING OVERNIGHT. WE ACTUALLY
HAD OUR LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY AROUND MIDNIGHT WHEN WINDS
WERE MOSTLY LIGHT AND SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WAS ABLE TO TAKE
PLACE. SINCE THEN, THE WINDS HAVE PICKED UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH FOR ISLAND CHAIN. AS A RESULT,
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN HAVE MOSTLY REBOUNDED AND ARE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH SOME POCKETS IN THE LOWER KEYS
OF MID 60S WITH BIG PINE KEY THE COOL SPOT COMING IN WITH 57
DEGREES AS OF 330 AM. DEW POINTS HAVE ALSO TICKED UP INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S WITH BIG PINE STILL IN THE UPPER 50S. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC EXTENDS WESTWARD
INTO THE KEYS THIS MORNING. THEREFORE, MARINE PLATFORMS ARE
OBSERVING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
FORECAST
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FOUR TO FIVE DAYS CONTINUES TO BE ABLE
TO BE SUMMED UP QUITE EASILY. WE EXPECT THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE
TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC NUDGES INTO THE KEYS
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. HOWEVER, DAYTIME HEATING ON THE MAINLAND
WILL ACT TO BIFURCATE THE RIDGE DURING THE DAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOONS LEADING TO A POTENTIAL PERIOD
OF VARIABLE BREEZES. OTHER THAN THAT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S TODAY WITH LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.
THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS THAT DO RADIATE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT UNDER
THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BUT NOT NEARLY
TO THE EXTENT AS YESTERDAY EVENING. VAST DRY AIR ALOFT REMAINS IN
PLACE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY LEADING TO CONTINUED NIL RAIN CHANCES.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST BEGINNING TONIGHT ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND
THEN OFFSHORE OF SOUTH CAROLINA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT,
ITS CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA AND THEN THROUGH THE KEYS
SOMETIME ON MONDAY WHICH IS A DELAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
CYCLES. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHORT-LIVED COOL SNAP TO MUCH OF
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. RAIN CHANCES CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST
SUNDAY NIGHT (20%) AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE LOW MATURES ON MONDAY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW THE A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS WHERE NOW 50% POPS
REMAIN. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO REMAIN CONSISTENT ON MARGINAL
INSTABILITY BEING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COUPLED WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND A TRIGGER (COLD FRONT), SAW NO REASON TO REMOVE
THUNDER FROM THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. ALSO, WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING WITH FURTHER
FRESHENING EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST LEADING TO A WINDY PERIOD FOR
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN OUT INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN WILL GRADUALLY ABATE AS A
RESULT WHILE SHIFTING TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF A FAIRLY LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
TEMPERATURES WILL START COOL ON TUESDAY BUT WILL REBOUND TO NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES (NORMAL HI 79: NORMAL LO: 69) FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2025
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN GENTLE TO AT TIMES MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS FLORIDA HEATS UP DURING THE DAY, THE HIGH
WILL BIFURCATE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE MAINLAND
LEADING TO A PERIOD OF VARIABLE BREEZES LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH
WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE KEYS WATERS SOMETIME ON
MONDAY. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES MONDAY MORNING WILL RAPIDLY
BECOME FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, ANOTHER HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE
GULF MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES
TUESDAY VEERING TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE, THOUGH GENERALLY
FROM THE SOUTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 80 71 82 74 / 0 0 0 20
MARATHON 81 71 84 74 / 0 0 0 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MC
DATA ACQUISITION.....MC
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