439
FXUS62 KKEY 091844
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
244 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2025
ANOTHER NEAR PERFECT BOATING DAY CONTINUES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH
DEW POINTS CREEPING UP TOWARDS THE LOW TO MID 70S. BREEZES ACROSS
THE ISLAND CHAIN REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS. SKIES REMAIN NEARLY CLOUD FREE ACROSS THE KEYS. MORE THAN
LIKELY, A CUBAN INHIBITION LAYER WILL BE PRESENT OVER MOST OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE
OBSERVATION OF SMOKE FROM SOME FIRES ON CUBA TRAVELING FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO BE SEEN BY BOTH GOES EAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
THE KEY WEST AIRPORT ASOS. DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO DISRUPT
THE SOUTHERLY BREEZES BY THE EARLY EVENING, SO ANOTHER PERIOD OF
VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED, LEADING TO ANOTHER UNEVENTFUL
EVENING OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. A GULF LOW CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALABAMA
AND MISSISSIPPI FUELED HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF. CURRENT
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE KEYS
TOMORROW. TIMING-WISE, THE CURRENT CONSENSUS PLACES INITIAL
SHOWERS IN KEY WEST LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EXPECT A WETTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE COMPARED TO LAST WEDNESDAY'S. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY EXISTS TO WARRANT INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW.
TOMORROW NIGHT, SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, BUT
DRY POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH FRESHENING BREEZES
AND DEW POINTS PLUMMETING INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
POST-COLD FRONT, THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE KEYS BECOMES MUCH LESS
DYNAMIC. HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF WITH A BROAD MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE YUCATAN. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, SO BRACE FOR
SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PROGGED
TO TIGHTEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH BECOMES
MORE PRONOUNCED AND THERE IS, AT THIS TIME, A LOW CHANCE OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2025
FROM SYNOPSIS, VARIABLE BREEZES TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO SLIGHTLY
FRESHER SOUTHERLIES TOMORROW MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING INTO A GULF LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL FORCE A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE MONDAY WITH A
GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY SLACKEN FROM FRESH TO STRONG TO GENTLE TO MODERATE
MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL PROVIDE UNEVENTFUL
CONDITIONS UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN BREEZES MAY INCREASE TO FRESH.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2025
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH FOR THE REST
OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT
OF THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FRESHENING OVERNIGHT.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY, IN 1998, 3.20" OF RAIN
FELL AT MARATHON. THIS WAS THE THIRD-WETTEST MARCH DAY ON RECORD FOR
MARATHON. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR MARATHON DATE BACK TO 1950.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 73 82 66 74 / 10 50 10 0
MARATHON 73 82 64 74 / 10 50 10 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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