542
FXUS62 KKEY 100730
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
330 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
YET ANOTHER QUIET, UNEVENTFUL OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS. SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF NORTHEASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA FIRST COAST. KBYX RADAR
IS DETECTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A ZONE OF
CONFLUENCE IN THE DISTANT DEEP GULF WATERS, BUT VOID OF ANY
METEOROLOGICAL ECHO RETURNS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS
NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES. GOES-16 NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY IS HIGHLIGHTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
KEYS. AFTER SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS,
MODESTLY FRESHENED SOUTHERLY BREEZES HAVE ACTUALLY WARMED
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS WAS PERHAPS MOST
NOTICEABLE IN THE FAVORED LARGER ISLANDS, INCLUDING THE RAWS
STATION IN BIG PINE, WHERE TEMPERATURES NOW STAND IN THE MID 70S,
FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN OBSERVED JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH EASTWARD TOWARDS
THE FLORIDA KEYS, THE TRANQUIL SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
END LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER A MORNING OF GENERALLY MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS, THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN
FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z TODAY. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS, GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
SUBTLE LAG IN THE BEST UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THE DEEP
MOISTURE PROFILE. HOWEVER, THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST A
BRIEF WINDOW OF DECENT OVERLAP FOR THESE TWO FIELDS TO LIKELY
SUPPORT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. ALL AVAILABLE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL (CAM) GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS
EVOLUTION, AND MID- RANGE MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES STILL SEEMS
APPROPRIATE BASED ON THIS.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS WILL NOTICEABLY
FRESHEN. NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE
WITH PEAK WIND SPEED MAGNITUDES IN THIS SCENARIO WITH AN
INTENSIFYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA, AND
ELECTED TO NUDGE WIND SPEEDS UP A COUPLE OF KNOTS FOR TONIGHT.
BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE
MARINE ZONES APPEAR TO BE A SLAM DUNK.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
TRAVERSE FROM THE GULF ON TUESDAY TO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BY
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE WIND VECTORS WILL RESPOND,
VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN EAST, THEN SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING
THE LOWER 80S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. INTEGRATED SURFACE TO
850 MB MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR QUITE MEAGER, AND NIL RAIN CHANCES
ARE MAINTAINED AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH FRIDAY.
A REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND. COUPLED WITH A
VEERING LOW-LEVEL PROFILE, A NUDGE TO SLIGHT POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND
SEEM APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL FLORIDA KEYS MARINE
ZONES. IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WINDS WILL CLOCK AROUND TO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. FROM SYNOPSIS, AN
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL FORCE A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK, WITH GENTLE BREEZES CLOCKING AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST, THEN EAST, THEN TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHICH ALSO WILL BRING VCSH. THE TIMING AND DURATION
OF THE RAIN, AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER, IS UNCERTAIN
ENOUGH TO LEAVE FOR LATER TAFS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY WILL
BACK TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES,
WITH ATTENDANT INCREASES IN WIND SPEED AND GUSTINESS WHICH WILL
PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1989, THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 50F WAS
OBSERVED AT MARATHON. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MARATHON DATE BACK TO
1950.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 82 66 74 66 / 50 20 0 0
MARATHON 82 64 74 66 / 40 20 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...BT
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MC
DATA ACQUISITION.....MC
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