301
FXUS62 KKEY 101451
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1051 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
A SUNNY START TO THE WEEK IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS
MORNING BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
GOES-16 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A ROBUST COLD FRONT
CUTTING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE FIRST COAST TO THE
SOUTHEAST GULF WATERS JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA. KBYX RADAR DETECTS
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MARCHING TO THE EAST
TOWARDS THE KEYS BUT THERE ARE NO PRECIPITABLE ECHOES IN OUR
WATERS QUIET YET. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES ALONG THE REEF
HAVE CONTINUED TO FRESHEN THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND ARE NOW
CLOCKING IN AT MODERATE TO FRESH MAGNITUDES. TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE ISLAND CHAIN HAVE RISEN TO NEAR 80 WITH SOMEWHAT MOIST
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
ALL EYES ARE ON THE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO PASS OVER THE KEYS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND A FEW DIFFERENT CAMS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT SPLIT ON HOW MUCH RAIN (IF ANY) THE KEYS WILL GET
WITH ITS PASSAGE. THIS MORNING'S KKEY 12Z SOUNDING STILL SHOWS A
GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ABOVE 800 MB AND A SMALL ML CAPE VALUE
MEANING THE ENVIRONMENT CERTAINLY ISN'T READY TO SUPPORT A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST YET. CIMSS MIMIC PW DOES NOTE A DECENT COLUMN
OF DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LINE. CLEAR
SKIES AHEAD OF THIS LINE WILL ALLOW FOR EXTENDED HEATING AHEAD OF
TIME POSSIBLY SOLVING OUR INSTABILITY DEFICIT. EITHER WAY, THE
LINE IS TRACKED TO MAKE IT TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ISLAND CHAIN
SOMEWHERE AROUND 20Z BY CURRENT ESTIMATES. MIDDLING CHANCE POPS
ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER CONTINUE TO FEEL APPROPRIATE FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
REQUIRED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, AN INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL FORCE A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK, WITH GENTLE
BREEZES CLOCKING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN EAST, THEN TO THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2025
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS FOR EYW AND MTH WILL LAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL FORM DURING A FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING WITH ACCOMPANIED VCSH AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE VEERING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO WEST TO NORTHWEST, THOUGH MOST OF THE DIRECTIONAL
SHIFT WILL OCCUR DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO UPPER TEENS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS. NORTHERLY
CROSSWINDS WILL BECOME A THREAT LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1989, THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 50F WAS
OBSERVED AT MARATHON. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MARATHON DATE BACK TO
1950.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 82 66 74 66 / 50 20 0 0
MARATHON 82 64 74 66 / 40 20 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page