302
FXUS62 KKEY 090908
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
508 AM EDT WED APR 9 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT WED APR 9 2025
A CLOUDY AND BREEZY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE KEYS. A COLD FRONT
THAT SWEPT THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HAS LEFT A STRATUS DECK
ACROSS THE REGION. EMBEDDED IN THIS DECK ARE FAST MOVING SHOWERS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS ARE FALLING
FROM THE MID DECK AND WILL ONLY PROVIDE BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS TO
AREA THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE MAINLY
ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.
TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING IN THE LOWER 70S WITH DEW POINTS VERY
COMFORTABLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
A LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
STILL HAS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS IS
LEADING TO LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE AS TO HOW MUCH SUN WE'LL
SEE LATER TODAY. DESPITE THE MOISTURE, WE'RE NOT EXPECTING SHOWERS
TO LINGER FOR MUCH LONGER AND WE SHOULD BE DRY BY THE AFTERNOON.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS.
BREEZES WILL SLACKEN IN THE SHADOW OF THE MAINLAND ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN WATERS AND UPPER KEYS, BUT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED EVERY
WHERE ELSE.
A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE CELL ACROSS THE GULF COUPLED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE BAHAMAS WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER SURGE TONIGHT. IN
FACT THIS COULD BE A TWO-FOLD SURGE. THE FIRST SURGE COMING DOWN
THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THEN AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST, WE COULD SEE A CORRESPONDING SURGE OFF THE
MAINLAND. THE HIGH/LOW PAIR WILL REMAIN IN PLAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK MAINTAINING PEAKS DURING THE NIGHT AND LULLS DURING THE
DAY. IN ADDITION, THE STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AND MAY ALLOW FOR ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TO DRIFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE KEYS.
A SECONDARY FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL MORE OR LESS HOVER IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S THIS WEEK WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 60S AND
70S. THE COOLEST NIGHT WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE UPPER KEYS COULD SEE LOWS NEARING 60
DEGREES! LASTLY, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT WED APR 9 2025
GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT FRONTAL
PASSAGE. A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF AND DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE TO NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WILL RESULT IN PEAKING AND
LULLING BREEZES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY PRESS THROUGH THE KEYS LATE WEEK OR EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESHENING NORTHWEST TO NORTH
BREEZES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT WED APR 9 2025
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT EYW AND MTH THROUGH SUNRISE, AFTER WHICH
CIGS WILL RISE INTO VFR RANGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SKY COVERAGE MAY ALSO DECREASE AFTER SUNRISE, BUT THIS IS NOT
EXPLICITLY MENTIONED IN THE TAFS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL
BKN COVERAGE WITH CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. VCSH
ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE GONE BY SUNRISE. SURFACE WINDS WILL PERSIST
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1985, THE DAILY RECORD OF 2.64" OF RAIN FELL AT KEY
WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 77 71 79 72 / 10 0 10 20
MARATHON 78 70 80 73 / 10 0 10 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ053>055-
073>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MC
DATA ACQUISITION.....MC
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