045
FXUS62 KKEY 091453
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1053 AM EDT WED APR 9 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EDT WED APR 9 2025
A BEAUTIFUL BUT STUBBORNLY BREEZY WEDNESDAY MORNING IS UNDERWAY
FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS HAVE SETTLED IN
NICELY WITH THE LAST FEW BANDS OF STRATIFORM RAIN EXITING OUR CWA
EARLIER THIS MORNING AND SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND DRIER DEWPOINTS NEAR
60. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, WINDS ARE BEING A BIT WONKY. THE
EAST SIDE OF OUR AREA IS BEHAVING WITH OFFSHORE OBSERVATION
PLATFORMS RECORDING MODERATE NORTHWESTERLIES IN LEE OF MAINLAND
FLORIDA. MEANWHILE, OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE LOWER KEYS NOTE
PREVAILING FRESH NORTHWESTERLIES WITH LITTLE SIGN OF SLACKENING
MAKING FOR A SOMEWHAT SPLIT FORECAST FOR THE REST THE DAY.
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS A LITTLE COMPLICATED TODAY. THE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT IS PARKED OVER THE BAHAMAS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ON THE OTHER SIDE IN THE GULF. THESE
TWO FEATURES ARE THE PRIMARY CONTROLLERS OF OUR BREEZES TODAY,
THUS WINDS WILL PERFORM DIFFERENTLY DEPENDING ON WHERE THEY ARE
OBSERVED. DAYTIME HEATING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALLOW FOR A
DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH, RELAXING THE GRADIENT OVER EASTERN
PORTION OF OUR AREA BUT STRENGTHENING IT IN THE WEST. THIS IS ALSO
NOT CONSIDERING THE SOMEWHAT MESOSCALE SURGE JETTING DOWN THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST OBSERVED ON GOES 19 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
OPTED TO PUT UP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS WEST OF THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. ANOTHER
SURGE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FROM WHICH ALL WATERS WILL LIKELY
REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT. THE EASIER PART OF THIS
FORECAST IS POPS AS DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A STRONG
INVERSION SUPPRESSING SHOWERS AT ~850 MB RESULTING IN NEAR NIL
RAIN CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EDT WED APR 9 2025
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST GULF,
WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA, AND NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE LOWER
KEYS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN ALL OTHER WATERS OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS EXCEPT THE FLORIDA BAY. FROM SYNOPSIS, GENERALLY
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE. A HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WILL RESULT IN PEAKING AND LULLING BREEZES
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY PRESS
THROUGH THE KEYS LATE WEEK OR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF FRESHENING NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EDT WED APR 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR EYW AND MTH IN THE WAKE OF
YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CIGS ARE LIFTING SAFELY ABOVE VFR
CRITERIA AND SUNLIGHT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THE LINGERING CLOUD
COVER. NEAR SURFACE NORTHWESTERLIES WILL PERSIST IN THE 10 TO 15
KNOT RANGE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS FOR THE 12Z TAF PERIOD, BUT WILL
SLOWLY SLACKEN LATE IN THE PERIOD.. NORTHERLY CROSSWINDS WILL BE THE
CONCERN FOR THE DAY.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1985, THE DAILY RECORD OF 2.64" OF RAIN FELL AT KEY
WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 77 71 79 72 / 10 0 10 20
MARATHON 78 70 80 73 / 10 0 10 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ033>035-
044-054-055-074-075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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