299
FXUS62 KKEY 100905
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
505 AM EDT THU APR 10 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT THU APR 10 2025
A BREEZY OVERNIGHT HAS LINGERED INTO THE EARLY DAWN HOURS THIS
MORNING. AN ONGOING DRAINAGE SURGE OFF THE MAINLAND IS KEEPING
WINDS ELEVATED A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MARINE
PLATFORMS IN THE FLORIDA BAY AND ALONG THE REEF TRACT SHOW SPEEDS
OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH. THIS SURGE IS THANKS IN PART TO
A HIGH IN THE GULF AND A LOW PARKED NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THE
GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR THESE PEAKS AND LULLS. IN ADDITION, THE
LOW IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THAT HAVE
ON OCCASION PASSED THROUGH OUR EASTERNMOST WATERS. OTHERWISE,
ANOTHER PLEASANT START TO DAY IS ON TAP WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL DOWN THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
THANKS TO THE NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW. AS THE FLOW GOES SLIGHT
EAST OF NORTH WE COULD SEE SHOWERS DRIFT OFF THE MAINLAND AND
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WE'RE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION, GENERALLY
ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS THOUGH AN ISOLATED TENTH OF INCH CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
THE LOW NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ON FRIDAY
WHILE THE NEXT LOW WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AS THIS NEXT LOW MOVES CLOSER TO OUR AREA, IT WILL ACT TO DEPRESS
THE HIGH ACROSS THE GULF AND TEMPORARILY LEAD TO A WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE KEYS. AGAIN THIS IS ONLY TEMPORARY AS
THE LOW WILL BE BRINGING THE NEXT FRONT TO THE AREA. PRIOR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER SURGE DOWN THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THEN BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A SECOND, POSSIBLY STRONGER SURGE
WILL PASS THROUGH. THIS NEXT FRONT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT A
SLIVER OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY AND THEREFORE HAVE
MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR NOW.
THEREAFTER, THE NEXT HIGH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN ACROSS THE
REGION AND SETTLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS CLOCKING AROUND FROM THE EAST. ALTHOUGH WE
WILL HAVE A FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION TYPICAL FOR SHOWERS,
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT THU APR 10 2025
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES PERSIST THIS MORNING AND SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE
DEEP GULF WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND LOW PRESSURE TO
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WILL RESULT IN PEAKING AND LULLING BREEZES
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY PRESS
THROUGH THE KEYS LATE WEEK OR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF FRESHENING NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TOWARDS THE START OF NEXT WEEK, CLOCKING WINDS AROUND TO
THE EAST WHILE SLACKENING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT THU APR 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH FOR THE TAF PERIOD. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER 18Z, BUT WITH
PROBABILITIES AT OR BELOW 20%, OPTED NOT TO EXPLICITLY INCLUDE
MENTION OF THIS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE
NORTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS, PRESENTING
POTENTIAL CROSSWIND CONCERNS AT BOTH TERMINALS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1899, THE DAILY RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 65F
WAS RECORDED AT KEY WEST. THIS IS ALSO TIED WITH APRIL 5, 1891 AND
APRIL 1, 1987 AS THE RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR ANY DAY IN
APRIL AT KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 81 72 81 71 / 10 20 10 10
MARATHON 80 73 81 71 / 20 20 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MC
DATA ACQUISITION.....MC
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