150
FXUS62 KKEY 101909
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
309 PM EDT THU APR 10 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT THU APR 10 2025
THIS AFTERNOON HAS ECHOES OF YESTERDAY IN ITS CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NORTHERLY BREEZES ALONG OUR OFFSHORE MARINE OBSERVATION STATIONS
ON THE REEF ARE REPORTING GENERALLY NORTHERLY BREEZES WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE MAGNITUDES TO THE EAST AND MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE
WEST. YET ANOTHER PEAK AND LULL IN WINDS DUE TO THERMAL HEATING
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF AND LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF
THE BAHAMAS ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY. THE PESKY CLUSTER
OF SHALLOW SHOWERS OFF OF SOUTH FLORIDA'S EAST COASTLINE HAVE
FINALLY MEANDERED THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHEAST STRAITS OF FLORIDA
BUT HAVE STAYED CLEAR OF LAND FOR THE TIME BEING. OTHERWISE,
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE OBSERVED OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE MORE OR LESS AT 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE KEYS WITH
DEWPOINTS RANGING THROUGH THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL FEATURE RELATIVELY MORE OF THE SAME
CONDITIONS AS TODAY. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE RELATIVELY
THE SAME AS LAST NIGHT. BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO FRESHEN OUT OF
THE NORTH ONCE MORE TONIGHT. THE EXTREMES OF WIND MAGNITUDES WILL
BE OUT IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF WATERS AND NORTHEAST STRAITS OF
FLORIDA WHILE MUCH OF THE MIDDLE OF OUR CWA IS SHADOWED BY
MAINLAND FLORIDA. MEANWHILE, THE MESOLOW OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL
CONTINUE TO CREEP SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH SOME RECENT CAM RUNS
SUGGESTING A FEW BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING UNDER ITS
INFLUENCE. WHILE THIS MOSTLY LOOKS LIMITED TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA, A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER LAND. THIS
IS SOMEWHAT REMARKABLE CONSIDERING HOW DRY OUR MORNING SOUNDING
IS ABOVE 850 MB, BUT THE ADVECTIVE LAYER PW 850-700MB SATELLITE
PRODUCT NOTES A PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO OUR AREA GUIDED BY
THIS CIRCULATION. THUS HAVE RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT TO
COVER IT.
ANOTHER FRONT IS ON TAP FOR THIS WEEKEND AND IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRIER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE THIS WEEK. THE LOW EXPECTED TO FORM IN
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY WILL CHURN FOR A DAY OR SO BEFORE
APPROACHING THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC SATURDAY, IT WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
FLORIDA. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL KEEP WINDS FROM RETURNING TO EAST
TO SOUTHEAST AND INSTEAD PROMOTE A FRESHENING OF NORTHWEST TO
NORTH BREEZES STARTING SATURDAY MORNING. VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE SO ONLY
NEAR NORMAL POPS (AROUND 10%) ARE HELD FOR THE FRONT HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. SUNDAY MORNING WE WILL LIKELY FEEL THE REINFORCING NATURE
OF THE FRONT WITH LOWS FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT SLIDING INTO THE
60S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S! THIS IS A FAIRLY UNCOMMON EVENT FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, SO ENJOY IT WHILE YOU CAN AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO
GRADUALLY WARM NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT THU APR 10 2025
CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS, THOUGH SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS DECREASE IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF
WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL RESULT IN PEAKING AND LULLING
BREEZES CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
MAY PRESS THROUGH THE KEYS LATE WEEK OR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESHENING NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TOWARDS THE START OF NEXT WEEK, CLOCKING
WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST WHILE SLACKENING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT THU APR 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SHOWER ACTIVITY CANNOT BE FULLY RULED OUT FOR TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND CONFIDENCE ON LOCATION WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENING AND DECREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1899, THE DAILY RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 65F
WAS RECORDED AT KEY WEST. THIS IS ALSO TIED WITH APRIL 5, 1891 AND
APRIL 1, 1987 AS THE RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR ANY DAY IN
APRIL AT KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 73 81 71 79 / 20 10 10 10
MARATHON 73 81 71 78 / 20 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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