163
FXUS62 KKEY 110942
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
542 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2025
THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT HAS BEEN JUST A LITTLE BIT BUSY THANKS TO A
HANDFUL OF SHOWERS MEANDERING IN THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS, AS
WELL AS THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH. IT ISN'T ENTIRELY CLEAR WHY
THESE SHOWERS HAVEN'T TAPERED OFF YET, BUT THERE IS A POCKET OF
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWAT VALUES IN THE AREA WHERE SHOWERS ARE
HAPPENING. THE LOWER KEYS, AND WESTERN WATERS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA, MAY DODGE THESE SHOWERS DUE TO DRIER AIR REFLECTED IN THE
LOWER PWAT VALUES. WHILE THESE SHOWERS LOOK LIKE THEY MAY BE THE
RESULT OF SOMETHING ON THE MESOSCALE, OUR AREA IS SITTING UNDER
THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK. THIS IS AN
AREA THAT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, SO THESE RELATIVELY WEAKER SHOWERS DON'T HAVE
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO TURN INTO SOMETHING A LITTLE MORE
NEFARIOUS. HI RES GUIDANCE KEEPS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS THROUGH THIS MORNING, AND
THIS IS NOTED IN THE 20 PERCENT POPS THAT ARE NOW BEING
ADVERTISED. FOR THE LOWER KEYS, WE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE 10
PERCENT POPS AS THE DRY AIR SHOULD MITIGATE ANY SHOWERS THAT TRY
TO APPROACH THE AREA. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO TRACK ACROSS ISLAND
COMMUNITIES SHOULDN'T BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS, BUT
RATHER THESE WILL JUST BE NUISANCE SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY UNREMARKABLE TODAY WITH LIGHT BREEZES IN
THE MORNING WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE
PENINSULA AND EVENTUALLY ARRIVE TO THE FLORIDA KEYS AREA. THE
MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE DRIER DEW POINTS AND ELEVATED
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY BREEZES. THE DRY NATURE OF THE FRONT MEANS
THAT WE ARE KEEPING POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT, SO SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WILL
BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE. OUR WARM WEATHER LOVING FORECASTER ALREADY
HAS A LONG SLEEVE SHIRT AND ZIP UP JACKET READY TO GO.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES AWAY ON SUNDAY, A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE WILL TAKE OVER THE SYNOPTIC SET UP OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE
MOST NOTABLE CHANGE IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES, WHICH WILL MAKE THINGS OUTSIDE FEEL A
LITTLE MORE LIKE APRIL IN THE KEYS. THERE AREN'T ANY LARGE SCALE
FEATURES NOTED IN THE LONG TERM GUIDANCE THAT WOULD WARRANT
CONCERN FOR THE KEYS, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN ONCE WE GET PAST THIS COLD FRONT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2025
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, GENTLE NORTHERLY
BREEZES WILL BECOME MODERATE AND NORTHWESTERLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS A DRY COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES OUR LOCAL WATERS.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF FRESHENING BREEZES IS LIKELY DURING THE BETWEEN
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT, BUT IT IS STILL UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER
OR NOT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED AS IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE VERY BORDERLINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AGAIN ONCE
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, AND BREEZES WILL
SLACKEN WHILE VEERING EASTERLY FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA, A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW
FOR BREEZES TO SLACKEN FURTHER AND BECOME VARIABLE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED ON KBYX RADAR APPROACHING MTH
OVERNIGHT, BUT TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THESE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH ON
APPROACH AS THEY ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR, THOUGH BRIEF EXCURSIONS INTO
MVFR CIGS REMAIN POSSIBLE. NOT INCLUDING MENTION OF EITHER MVFR OR
VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR NOW AS ANY APPEARANCE SHOULD BE TRANSIENT AND
THE CHANCES FOR BOTH SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNRISE. WINDS PERSIST FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH NEAR 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1987, THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 59F WAS
LAST RECORDED AT KEY WEST, TYING THE RECORD SET IN 1899. ALSO ON
THIS DAY IN 1960 THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 58F WAS
RECORDED AT MARATHON. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871, AND FOR MARATHON BACK TO 1950.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 81 71 79 68 / 10 10 10 0
MARATHON 81 71 78 68 / 20 10 10 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MC
DATA ACQUISITION.....MC
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