352
FXUS62 KKEY 120228
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1028 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1026 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2025
A CALM EVENING HAS BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. KBYX
RADAR SHOWED ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE STRAITS
AND WESTERN HAWK CHANNEL, MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS
EARLIER. THE ACTIVITY REMAINED PERSISTENT UP UNTIL ABOUT TWO
HOURS AGO WHEN THE SHOWERS DISSIPATED. GOES EAST NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS SHOWS VIRTUALLY A CLOUD FREE FLORIDA KEYS, THOUGH, A
FEW CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN NEAR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A NOR'EASTER IS
DEVELOPING OFF THE DELMARVA COASTLINE THIS EVENING WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD DOWN THE COASTLINE
AND THEN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT, WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF, A DECENT GRADIENT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF
WHICH HAS LED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASED WINDS FROM EARLIER. DUE TO
THIS, MARINE PLATFORMS AROUND THE KEYS ARE OBSERVING WEST TO
NORTHWEST BREEZES NEAR 10 KNOTS AND ISLAND CHAIN COMMUNITIES ARE
OBSERVING NEAR 10 MPH.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS A VIRTUALLY DRY PROFILE FROM THE
SURFACE TO THE TOP OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS A SMALL INVERSION
PRESENT NOT FAR ABOVE THE SURFACE AROUND 975-950 MB LEADING TO A
VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. THE WIND PROFILE IS MOSTLY NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE PWAT VALUE MEASURED
WAS 1.03 INCHES WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR
THE DATE. OVERALL, NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING LEADING TO SLOWLY
INCREASING WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1026 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2025
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER FRESHEN OVERNIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA COASTLINE. A COLD
FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REACHING
AND PRESSING THROUGH THE KEYS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY. BREEZES FURTHER FRESHEN LATE IN THE DAY AS A RESULT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS, THOUGH, THIS STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SLACKENING BREEZES WHILE VEERING TO THE EAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PACKAGE AT BOTH
TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT SLIDING DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO PRESS THROUGH THE KEYS SOMETIME EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY (GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS) HEADING
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LEADING TO INCREASING
CROSSWIND. ALSO, THERE IS THE VERY OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A LIGHT
SPRINKLE OR PASSING SHOWER IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12/11Z-14Z AT
EITHER TERMINAL AS THE FRONT PRESSES THROUGH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 81 71 79 69 / 0 10 0 0
MARATHON 81 71 78 67 / 0 10 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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