078
FXUS62 KKEY 120841
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
441 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
OUR KBYX RADAR DECIDED TO STAY BUSY WITH US ON THIS OVERNIGHT
SHIFT AS IT HAS DETECTED A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS IN THE VERY
DISTANT EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS. THESE SHOWERS HAVEN'T PRODUCED
ANY LIGHTNING, AND THEY ARE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD AWAY FROM
US. OUR AREA IS SITTING IN A SMALL DRIER POCKET OF AIR WITH CIMSS
MIMIC LAYER PWAT SHOWING VALUES JUST UNDER ONE INCH. TO OUR
NORTHEAST IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT SLIDING DOWN THE
PENINSULA, AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS. COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS SOME
SPOTTY, LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT. PWAT VALUES ARE
COMPARABLE TO THE LINE OF SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS, AND MOS
GUIDANCE HAS HINTED AT VERY LOW PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS MAKING IT
TO THE ISLAND CHAIN. FOR THAT REASON, WE HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
(10%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY. ANY SHOWERS THAT CROSS ISLAND
COMMUNITIES WILL BE VERY LIGHT, AND SHORT LIVED, SO THESE
SHOULDN'T PUT A DAMPER ON OUR DAY. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES
WILL SHIFT NORTHERLY LATER TODAY AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE THAT THIS COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND DRAG THE
FRONT OUT OF OUR WATERS BY TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ABLE TO
BUILD IN, AND THIS WILL BRING OVERALL BENIGN WEATHER WITH IT.
BREEZES WILL BE LIGHT AND PREVAIL EASTERLY, SO TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS WILL TREND WARMER. THE DAY TO DAY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
DEPEND ON ANY MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT MAY SET UP, AND THAT IS TOO
SMALL OF A SCALE TO OFFER ANY MEANINGFUL INSIGHT AT THIS TIME.
ONCE WE GET TO THE OTHER SIDE OF THIS COLD FRONT, OUR WEATHER WILL
BE QUITE BORING, BUT WE ARE NOT COMPLAINING!
MARINE
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR INCREASING WINDS ACROSS
BAYSIDE AND GULF SIDE WATERS, HAWK CHANNEL, THE FLORIDA STRAITS,
AND THE DEEP GULF. FROM SYNOPSIS, GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL
CONTINUE TO FURTHER FRESHEN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES, AND
MOVES THROUGH, OUR FORECAST AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS
THAT WE MAY VERY BRIEFLY TOUCH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT
SOME POINT LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, BUT THE MAGNITUDE AND
DURATION ARE NOT REALLY THERE FOR AN ACTUAL ISSUANCE. THEREFORE,
WE ARE OPTING FOR SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
ACROSS ALL WATERS, EXCEPT FOR FLORIDA BAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN AND SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SLACKENING BREEZES WHILE VEERING TO THE EAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH FOR THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. A FRONTAL PASSAGE NEAR SUNRISE WILL BRING A SLIGHT (10%)
CHANCE OF SHOWERS, BUT DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY AND EXPECTED
LIMITED SHOWER COVERAGE, OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
INCREASING IN SPEED AND BECOMING GUSTY BY LATE MORNING.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 1985, 6.19 INCHES OF RAIN FELL AT KEY WEST. THIS WAS
THE WETTEST APRIL DAY EVER RECORDED AT KEY WEST, AND THE 19TH-
WETTEST DAY OVERALL. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 79 69 81 72 / 10 0 0 0
MARATHON 78 67 79 72 / 10 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MC
DATA ACQUISITION.....MC
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