309
FXUS62 KKEY 121453
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1053 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
A COLD FRONT HAS RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH
VERY LITTLE FANFARE. THERE IS A LINE OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THIS
FRONT BUT IT JUMPED THE LOWER KEYS AS IT PASSED THROUGH. NOW THIS
LINE IS SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, HOWEVER, WE ARE SEEING A MINOR SURGE COMING
DOWN THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. THIS IS PRODUCING WIND SPEEDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 70S WITH DEW
POINTS VERY COMFORTABLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
MULTIPLE REASONS FOR THIS; 1. THE SURGE COMING DOWN THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA, 2. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY,
3. THE HEADACHE OF WHAT WINDS WILL DO IN THE FLORIDA BAY AND
IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE MAINLAND. LET'S FURTHER DISCUSS THAT
LAST POINT. THERE IS GOING TO BE A TIGHT AND SEEMINGLY IMPOSSIBLE
SPEED GRADIENT BETWEEN LONG KEY AND CARYSFORT REEF LIGHT. LONG KEY
WILL BE JUST FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST THAT IT WILL FEEL THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SURGE COMING DOWN THE WEST COAST. THEREFORE,
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY FRESH BREEZES WILL BE FELT THERE. MEANWHILE,
CARYSFORT WILL FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE MAINLAND AND WINDS WILL
COLLAPSE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AS A RESULT, MARINERS TRANSITING
FROM ONE SIDE OF THE FLORIDA BAY TO THE OTHER WILL FEEL A DRAMATIC
DIFFERENCE IN WIND SPEEDS. WE HAVE TRIED TO CAPTURE THIS AS IT
WILL BE LEGIT JUST DUE TO THE THERMAL GRADIENT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL FRESHEN THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT
WE MAY VERY BRIEFLY TOUCH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT SOME
POINT LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE, WE ARE OPTING FOR SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ACROSS ALL WATERS, EXCEPT FOR FLORIDA
BAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SLACKENING BREEZES WHILE VEERING TO THE EAST.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN, BECOMING BREEZY AND GUSTY OUT
OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT CROSSWIND
COMPONENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 79 69 81 72 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 78 67 79 72 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....11
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