503
FXUS62 KKEY 121855
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
255 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
THE RECENT FRONT HAS NOW SLID OUT OUR WATERS AND HAS REACHED THE
NORTH COAST OF CUBA. IN THE WAKE, THE KEYS HAVE BEEN ENJOYING
SUNNY SKIES, TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES, AND
DEW POINTS BELOW 60 DEGREES! NORTHERLY WINDS WEST OF THE CHANNEL 5
BRIDGE REMAIN AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THAT IS JUST BASED
ON THE OBSERVATIONS WE HAVE IN THE WESTERN WATERS. BUOYS ALONG THE
FLORIDA SHELF JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR WATERS IS PICKING UP ON THE
BEGINNINGS OF THE NEXT SURGE WITH SPEEDS CLOSER TO THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE.
AS ALLUDED TO, WE ARE EXPECTING A SURGE TONIGHT AS A COMBINATION
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S AND TYPICAL
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A QUICK UPTICK IN WINDS OF
NEAR 20 KNOTS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET AND CONTINUING THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SURGE SHOULD BE QUICK AND SHORT-
LIVED, WITH WINDS DECREASING TO NEAR 15 KNOTS BY DAWN SUNDAY.
AFTER THAT, THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES RATHER DULL AND QUIET.
HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVER TIME, A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL ACT TO
FLATTEN THE HIGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS CLOCKING AROUND TO THE
EAST AND SLACKENING. THE PASSING TROUGH WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE
SURFACE HIGH AND WE COULD ACTUALLY GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER, THE NEXT HIGH SWOOPS IN AND WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AS IT
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WINDS.
DESPITE THE MULTIPLE PERIODS OF EASTERLY WINDS, DEEP DRY AIR ALOFT
WILL PREVENT THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM MOISTENING UP. AS A RESULT,
WE ARE LOOKING AT A PROLONGED DRY PERIOD OF NEAR NIL POPS. IN
ADDITION, IT ALSO MEANS THAT DEW POINTS WILL STAY BELOW 70 DEGREES
FOR THE MOST PART.
LOOKING FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD, THIS MAY CHANGE AS THE HIGH SLIPS
FURTHER EAST AND WE GO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AND ADDED MOISTURE
RETURNS. BUT AT THAT POINT, WE ARE VENTURING INTO FANTASY-LAND
AND WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
AN EVENING SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE BRIEF, BEGINNING DURING THE EVENING AND LASTING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND SLIDE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLACKENING BREEZES WHILE
VEERING TO THE EAST. A REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING TOWARDS
THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO FRESHENING BREEZES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS TONIGHT. EXPECT
WINDS TO STRENGTHEN A BIT FURTHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BECOMING BREEZY AND GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT CROSSWIND COMPONENT. WINDS WILL THEN
TREND DOWNWARDS OVERNIGHT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 69 80 72 81 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 67 80 72 80 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....11
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