786
FXUS62 KKEY 130234
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1034 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
A GORGEOUS NIGHT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. KBYX RADAR
IS NOT DETECTING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AND GOES EAST NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME SHALLOW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS AND THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER 70S
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. CIMSS PRODUCTS SHOW A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND FLORIDA LEADING TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
BAHAMAS AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. THIS IS
RESULTING IN A FAIRLY HEALTHY PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE KEYS
THIS EVENING RESULTING IN MARINE PLATFORMS AROUND THE KEYS
OBSERVING NEAR 20 KNOTS.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY PROFILE WITH VAST DRY
AIR ESPECIALLY ABOVE 825 MB. THERE IS A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
PRESENT BETWEEN 825-850 MB (4500-5200FT AGL) WHICH IS MOST LIKELY
THE LAYER THE CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN MARINE AREA ARE
BASED. THE PWAT VALUE MEASURED WAS 0.53 INCHES WHICH IS VERY CLOSE
TO A NEW DAILY MIN FOR THE DATE OF 0.48 INCHES. SO CLOSE TO A
RECORD BUT NOT QUITE. THE WIND PROFILE SHOWS A DEEP LAYER OF
NORTHWESTERLIES BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS INDICATING CAA OR COLD AIR
ADVECTION ONGOING. OVERALL, BASED ON THE ABOVE, NO CHANGES
EXPECTED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALL THE FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FROM SYNOPSIS,
THE EVENING SURGE IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND SLIDE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLACKENING BREEZES WHILE
VEERING TO THE EAST. A REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING TOWARDS
THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO FRESHENING BREEZES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST TO NORTH KEEPING THE
CROSSWIND AT BOTH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS REMAINING
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN DURING THE DAY AS WELL AS VEER FROM
DUE NORTH AROUND DAYBREAK TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST MID TO LATE
MORNING AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST TO EAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH
WINDS SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 69 80 72 81 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 67 80 72 80 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
042>044-052>055-072>075.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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