948
FXUS62 KKEY 131008
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
608 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD IN TO THE REGION AS THE COLD
FRONT FROM YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN AN UNREMARKABLE OVERNIGHT SHIFT FOR THOSE OF US WHO
ARE ON WEATHER WATCH, BUT WE ARE NOT COMPLAINING! IT'S NICE TO BE
ABLE TO MONITOR THE STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHEN THERE ISN'T
URGENT WEATHER UNFOLDING, AND THIS WAS A GREAT NIGHT FOR IT. OUR
KBYX RADAR HASN'T DETECTED ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. BUT IT IS PICKING
UP AREAS OF LOW LEVEL, FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. THESE ARE THE SAME
CLOUDS THAT OUR RADIOSONDE LAUNCH FROM LAST EVENING DETECTED IN
THE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY PROFILE. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, THE SOUNDING SAMPLED A PROLIFICALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE,
WITH ALMOST ALL OF THE MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS. A
CLOSER LOOK AT THE SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE CONCENTRATION OF
MOISTURE WAS DETECTED AT APPROXIMATELY THE SAME HEIGHT AS THE
CURRENT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT OUR RADAR IS DETECTING! THIS IS
JUST A VERY "NERDY" WAY OF SAYING THAT IT WAS NICE TO MONITOR
THESE CLOUD FIELDS KNOWING THAT THE AIR ALOFT WAS TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT ANY RAINFALL ACTIVITY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND WILL LEAD TO UNEVENTFUL WEATHER FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL VEER EASTERLY, AND WE
SHOULDN'T SEE MORE THAN A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE
SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S, AND RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE EASTERLY BREEZES SHOULD, IN THEORY, CAUSE DEW POINTS TO BE ON
THE RISE, BUT CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THESE WILL STAY LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AIR COMFORTABLE. CHANGES TO THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL RESULT FROM ANY MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT MAY BE IN
PLAY, BUT THOSE ARE PARAMETERS THAT CAN'T BE FORECAST IN A
MEANINGFUL MANNER DAYS IN ADVANCE. OVERALL, WE CAN CONTINUE TO
ENJOY THE BEAUTIFUL DAYS AHEAD AS WE WRAP UP THE WEEKEND, AND
BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK.
OUR EYES ARE ON THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN, BUT DETAILS ARE TOO UNCERTAIN TO HONE
IN ON AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA BAYSIDE
WATERS, AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF HAWK CHANNEL AND THE FLORIDA
STRAITS DUE TO NORTHERLY BREEZES NEAR 20 KNOTS. THESE BREEZES
SHOULD SLACKEN QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE, AND GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL RESUME ACROSS ALL LOCAL
WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN, AND CROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BREEZES WILL RESPOND BY
VEERING AROUND THE CLOCK. A REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING
TOWARDS THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO FRESHENING BREEZES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND
TERMINALS TODAY, WITH THE SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CEILINGS
NEAR FL045 AT EYW GRADUALLY CLEARING. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS WHILE
GRADUALLY DECREASING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TO EAST BY LATE
THIS (SUNDAY) EVENING, WITH FEW TO SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS WITH
BASES NEAR FL040 WORKING BACK IN FROM THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY: IN 2004, A LARGE,
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM TRACKED EASTWARD FROM THE DRY
TORTUGAS, IMPACTING KEY WEST JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. A WIND GUST OF 76
MPH WAS RECORDED BY AN AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION NEAR DRY TORTUGAS
NATIONAL PARK AT IOWA ROCK. WIND GUSTS TO 51 MPH WERE OBSERVED AT
KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ALONG WITH A DAILY-RECORD RAINFALL OF
1.89".
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 80 71 81 73 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 80 72 80 73 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ031-032-
042-043-052-053-072-073.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JR
DATA ACQUISITION.....JR
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