232
FXUS62 KKEY 140907
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
507 AM EDT MON APR 14 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON APR 14 2025
THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT IS HAPPY TO REPORT THAT WEATHER CONDITIONS
HAVE REMAINED CALM! THE KBYX RADAR HAS REMAINED VOID OF ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. SOMETIME AROUND 2 AM EDT, WE NOTICED A SWATH OF
“NOISE” ON THE RADAR MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, BUT THIS IS
LIKELY A MIGRATION OF BIRDS FROM CUBA. THEY CHOSE A GOOD NIGHT TO
FLY AS BREEZES HAVE BEEN LIGHT TO GENTLE ALL NIGHT. AUTOMATED
OBSERVATIONS AT BOTH KEY WEST AND MARATHON AIRPORTS HAVE DETECTED
OCCASIONAL CLOUD HEIGHTS AROUND 5500 FEET, AND NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY FROM THE GOES-19 SATELLITE SHOWS AN ALMOST
SURPRISING AMOUNT OF CUMULUS COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. CIMSS
MIMIC PWAT VALUES RANGE FROM APPROXIMATELY 0.55" TO 0.85", SO THAT
MOISTURE IS LIKELY CONCENTRATED WHERE THIS CLOUD COVER IS
OCCURRING. ANY OF OUR NEIGHBORS SENSITIVE TO RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES, INCLUDING THIS FORECASTER, MAY HAVE NOTICED HOW COOL
IT HAS BEEN OUTSIDE. AS OF 430 AM, AIR TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS
READ MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S, AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE LOWER 60S. THESE LOW DEW POINTS ARE WHAT MAKE THE AIR FEEL
COMFORTABLE, AND EVEN CHILLY TO SOME OF US.
DRIER AIR IS STILL IN ABUNDANCE ACROSS THE REGION, AND THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ARE SILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE COMFORTABLE. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 80, AND THERE SHOULDN'T BE TOO MUCH CLOUD
COVER TO BLOCK OUT THE FLORIDA SUNSHINE. THIS IS THANKS TO DEEP
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THAT IS PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
THESE COMFORTABLE, AND ALMOST BRAG WORTHY, CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AS THE HIGH TRACK EASTWARD AND OUT OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC OVER THE COMING DAYS.
WE DO STILL HAVE OUR EYES ON THE END OF THE WEEK AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S AND A HIGH
OVER THE GULF MAY WORK IN TANDEM TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WOULD LEAD TO ELEVATED EASTERLY BREEZES, BUT
IT IS STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO HONE IN ON WHAT THESE BREEZES
MAY LOOK LIKE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY FAVORING WINDS NEAR
THE END OF THE WEEK NEAR 20 MPH ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN, BUT THERE
ARE A FEW MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLE THAT SUGGEST WE CAN'T RULE OUT
OCCASIONAL STRONGER WINDS. ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY THAT THERE ISN'T
MUCH CONFIDENCE WHEN WE'RE STILL MORE THAN A FEW DAYS OUT, SO FOR
NOW WE'LL ENJOY THE PICTURE PERFECT WEATHER WE HAVE NOW WHILE WE
TRY TO GET A CLEARER PICTURE OF THE END OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON APR 14 2025
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF EASTERLY
GENTLE BREEZES THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. BREEZES WILL SLACKEN AS
A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE KEYS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THEN, REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES TOWARDS
THURSDAY LEADING TO A STRONGER ROUND OF FRESHENING BREEZES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT MON APR 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. LIGHT, MOSTLY NORTHEAST WINDS AT
EYW WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS. THIS WIND SHIFT HAS ALREADY TAKEN PLACE
AT MTH. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUD BASES
NEAR FL030-035 WITH OCCASIONAL SPREADING IN THE FL045-060 LAYER CAN
BE EXPECTED.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY: THE DAILY RECORD
WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 81F WAS RECORDED IN 2020 AT KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS ALSO TIED FOR THE WARMEST LOW
TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN APRIL. IN CONTRAST, BOTH THE DAILY
RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 68F AND THE DAILY RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURE OF 58F WERE RECORDED IN 1940.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 80 72 82 72 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 80 72 81 71 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JR
DATA ACQUISITION.....JR
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