809
FXUS62 KKEY 150855
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
455 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
NO NEWS IS GOOD NEWS, AND THIS APPLIES TO WEATHER JUST AS MUCH AS
IT APPLIES TO ALMOST ANYTHING ELSE. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT HAS HAD
THE PLEASURE OF MONITORING CALM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN PLACE. AS OF 430 AM EDT, TEMPERATURES
WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S, BUT THE REAL STAR WAS DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW 60S. THESE LOW DEW POINTS MAKE FOR COMFORTABLE AIR, AND
SOME MAY EVEN SAY THAT THE TEMPERATURES FEEL A LITTLE CHILLY. WITH
THIS HIGH IN PLACE, TODAY WILL LOOK A LOT LIKE YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS NEAR 80, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, AND LIGHT BREEZES OUT OF THE
EAST BECOMING VARIABLE.
THE COMBINATION OF GOES-19 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES WITH A LENGTHY COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NEW YORK TO
TEXAS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE PARENT LOW IS GOING TO
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST, AND DRAG THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE PENINSULA, IT WILL LOSE MUCH OF ITS "OOMPH" AND WE WILL
BE LEFT WITH THE DECAYING TAIL END OF THE FRONT CLIPPING OUR
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WE ONLY EXPECT TO BE HAUNTED BY HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ONE OR TWO DEGREES COOLER. OTHERWISE, THIS
BOUNDARY WILL GO MOSTLY UNNOTICED IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER.
BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESS WILL BUILD IN AGAIN BEGINNING ON
THURSDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FACE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. IT IS STILL JUST A LITTLE
TOO EARLY TO SORT OUT HOW STRONG OUR BREEZES COULD GET, BUT
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS FAVORING BREEZES BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH.
CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND WE CAN
SEE JUST HOW TIGHT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES. THE EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THESE BREEZES WILL HELP TO ADVECT MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA, AND WE MAY START TO SEE OUR RECENT DRIER DEW POINTS GIVE
WAY TO DEW POINTS CLOSER TO THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NO RAINFALL CHANCES AS WE NEED TIME TO BUILD
IN ENOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT TO MAKE UP FOR THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL
STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION, ALLOWING FOR LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES
THIS MORNING TO BECOME VARIABLE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE DECAYING
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE LOCAL WATERS WEDNESDAY, BUT
THE ONLY CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE BREEZES ASSUMING A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. ON THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING WILL
CAUSE BREEZES TO TURN EASTERLY AND FRESHEN QUICKLY. FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
NIGHT, AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
VFR AND GENTLE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS
THROUGH THE MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING OVER FLORIDA AND THE APPROACH
OF A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DESTROY THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
AT BOTH TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DATE IN 2020, KEY WEST SET TWO HEAT RECORDS: THE DAILY
RECORD HIGH OF 88F AND THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW OF 80F. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 82 71 80 72 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 80 71 80 72 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....CLR
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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