344
FXUS62 KKEY 151947
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
347 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
AN APPROACHING DECAYING FRONT FROM A FAR FLUNG SURFACE LOW HAS
WEAKENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE KEYS. WINDS IN RESPONSE
WENT LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE EVEN THOUGH
THERE HAS BEEN A NORTHERLY HESITATION IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
SKIES HAVE REMAINED FULL OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE LOWER 80S, WHILE DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED COMFORTABLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
TONIGHT, A VERY WEAK SURGE WILL MOVE DOWN THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO CLOCK
AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST. THEN, THE AFOREMENTIONED DECAYING FRONT
WILL SPILL THROUGH SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. QUICKLY FILLING IN
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE A HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL INITIALLY KEEP
LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY BREEZES ON THURSDAY.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, THIS HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND
BUILD. AS IT BUILDS, WINDS WILL CLOCK FURTHER AROUND TO THE EAST
AND FRESHEN. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG BREEZES WILL DEVELOP
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
SLACKENING. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL INITIALLY KEEP RAIN CHANCES
NEAR NIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN GRADUALLY INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT
AND HAVE INTRODUCED LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. AS WE GO INTO THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, DEEPER MOISTURE WILL FILTER IN
ACROSS THE REGION. THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND ANY SHOWERS WOULD COME ABOUT DUE TO MAINLY
MESOSCALE FORCING. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE
UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO
MEAN A RETURN INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR DEW POINTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS
TONIGHT, ALLOWING WINDS LOCALLY TO CLOCK AROUND FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A DECAYING COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A REINFORCING NORTHERLY WIND. ON THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD AND EXPAND ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS, CAUSING BREEZES TO
TURN EASTERLY AND FRESHEN QUICKLY. FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT, AND THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS
TODAY. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DATE IN 2020, KEY WEST SET TWO HEAT RECORDS: THE DAILY
RECORD HIGH OF 88F AND THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW OF 80F. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 70 80 72 83 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 70 79 72 81 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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