057
FXUS62 KKEY 020235
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1035 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
IT HAS BEEN A CALM EVENING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. KBYX RADAR HAS
NOT DETECTED ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS
EVENING. ANY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO OFF THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COASTLINE NEAR MARCO ISLAND. GOES EAST NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY SHOWS SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
CUMULUS CLOUDS STREAMING FROM EAST TO WEST. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC JUST TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA. THIS IS LEADING TO
MARINE PLATFORMS AROUND THE KEYS OBSERVING NORTHEAST TO EAST
BREEZES OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND ISLAND CHAIN COMMUNITIES OBSERVING
NEAR 15 MPH.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS A MOSTLY DRY PROFILE WITH A COUPLE
MOIST LAYERS PRESENT. THE FIRST IS BETWEEN 925-900 MB AND THE
SECOND ONE IS IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BETWEEN 350 MB
TO 250 MB. THE WIND PROFILE SHOWS EASTERLY WINDS FROM THE SURFACE
UP TO 3000 FT AGL BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEAST TO EAST ABOVE 3000 FT
AGL. THE PWAT VALUE MEASURED IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO LAST EVENING
AT 0.96 INCHES. THIS PLACES THE PWAT AT THE 10TH PERCENTILE FOR
THE DATE. OVERALL, EXPECT A DRY NIGHT TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE KEYS
WITH NO CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. JUST EXPECTED
SOME CONTINUED LOW AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) UNTIL WINDS DECREASE
ARE HEADLINED ACROSS ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. FROM SYNOPSIS, A BROAD, THOUGH WEAKENING, BERMUDA HIGH
WILL SUSTAIN FRESH BREEZES ACROSS THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT. BRIEF SLACKENING WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AS
BREEZES OSCILLATE BETWEEN STRONGER IN THE EVENING AND WEAKER
DURING THE DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL WEAKEN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES LATE THIS
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY
DUE EAST AT 8 TO 13 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. ANY GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TOWARDS THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 84 75 84 75 / 0 10 10 10
MARATHON 82 75 82 75 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....MC
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