325
FXUS62 KKEY 020836
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
436 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
A NOT SO QUIET OVERNIGHT BUT STILL RELATIVELY TAME. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN SKIRTING WESTWARD ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND ARE
ON PACE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, OUR
TYPICAL OVERNIGHT WEAK SURGE IS ONGOING WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY NEAR
15 KNOTS ACROSS THE FLORIDA BAY AND REEF TRACT. BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR BERMUDA CONTINUES TO PROMOTE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. DESPITE THE EASTERLY REGIME WE ARE IN, DEW POINTS HAVE
REMAINED JUST BELOW WHAT WE WOULD CONSIDER MUGGY, WITH VALUES IN
THE MID 60S.
ONCE WE GET THROUGH THIS SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING, WE
WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
FURTHER TO THE EAST, OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC,
THE LEADING EDGE OF BETTER LOW MOISTURE IS SLOWLY TRACKING WEST.
THE LEADING EDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE IN STARTING TONIGHT,
HOWEVER, IT WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE
700-850 MB LAYER. AS A RESULT, RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHT AT BEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PARKED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S.
WILL PIVOT SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON SUNDAY. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS
TO BE THE "BEST" CHANCES FOR RAIN. THAT BEING SAID, HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP CHANCES SLIGHTLY BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE AS THERE'S NOT A LOT OF
LOW LEVEL OR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. OTHERWISE, THE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN RATHER STAGNANT AND MONOTONOUS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
THE FLORIDA KEYS LIE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD, BERMUDA
HIGH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE OVERNIGHT PEAKS AND AFTERNOON
LULLS THROUGH SATURDAY. THEREAFTER, THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BREAK
DOWN ALLOWING FOR BREEZES TO DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. BREEZES WILL FRESHEN ONCE AGAIN
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS TODAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENTLE TO MODERATE OUT OF THE EAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 84 78 85 79 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 84 78 85 79 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....11
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