230
FXUS62 KKEY 030236
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1036 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
IT HAS BEEN A CALM EVENING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. KBYX RADAR IS
NOT DETECTING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AND GOES EAST NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREAS WITH JUST A
FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WITH THE CENTER
OF THIS RIDGE A LITTLE NORTH AND EAST OF BERMUDA. THIS IS LEADING
TO MARINE PLATFORMS AROUND THE KEYS OBSERVING MAINLY EASTERLY
BREEZES NEAR 15 KNOTS AND ISLAND CHAIN COMMUNITIES OBSERVING 10 TO
15 MPH.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING DISPLAYS A VERY DRY PROFILE. THE WIND
PROFILE SHOWS MAINLY EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 3000 FT
AGL BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST ABOVE 3000 FT AGL AND
MAINLY BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE PWAT VALUE MEASURED IS
SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN LAST EVENING AT 0.84 INCHES INSTEAD OF 0.96
INCHES. THIS IS LOWER THAN THE 10TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE BUT
ALSO STILL HIGHER THAN THE MIN FOR THE DATE OF 0.65 INCHES.
OVERALL, NO CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THERE IS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EAST
SIDE OF CUBA WHICH MAY MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE KEYS TOWARDS THE WII
HOURS OF THE NIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THEREFORE, 10% REMAINS
IN THE FORECAST AS A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THIS THREAT IS MORE LIKELY DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME HOWEVER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) UNTIL WINDS DECREASE
REMAINS HEADLINED OVERNIGHT FOR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FROM
SYNOPSIS, BREEZES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SLACKEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS WATERS THIS WEEKEND. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL STEADILY MOVE
EAST AND ALLOW FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES FROM SATURDAY TO
TUESDAY. A PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY SUPPORTS
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES TO SCATTERED, AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY DURING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. DRY BREEZES AND
FRESHENING BREEZES ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 7 TO 14 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 77 85 76 86 / 10 10 20 20
MARATHON 77 84 77 85 / 10 10 20 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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