809
FXUS62 KKEY 031446
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1046 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 957 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CALM FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS
MORNING, EXCEPT FOR OUR FRIENDS IN THE UPPER KEYS! ISOLATED
SHOWERS TRACKED ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, AND
OUR KBYX RADAR SHOWS THAT THE ACTIVITY IS FINALLY DIMINISHING.
RADAR ESTIMATED QPF TOTALS OVER THE ISLANDS REFLECT VALUES UP TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH, BUT THE ONLY REAL TIME OBSERVATION THAT IS
AVAILABLE HAS REPORTED ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH HAVE
FALLEN. EVEN THOUGH WE MAY NOT HAVE A PRECISE MEASUREMENT FOR
QPF, IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS NOT SIGNIFICANT. OUR
KBYX RADAR HAS ALSO SHOWED SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS, BUT AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT SUGGEST THAT ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES
HAVE MADE IT TO THE SURFACE.
CIMSS MIMIC LAYER PWAT SHOWS WIDESPREAD VALUES NEAR 1.20", WHICH
LINES UP WITH THE KKEY 12Z SOUNDING THAT CALCULATED A PWAT OF
1.10". PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL HELP TO ADVECT SOME
HIGHER VALUES THAT ARE CURRENTLY ENCROACHING ON OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH VALUES CLOSER TO 1.40". WILL GO AHEAD AND MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ALONG THE KEYS ARE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. THIS MEANS THAT WE ARE STILL ON TRACK TO
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. THE ACCOMPANYING DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE THINGS FEEL A LITTLE MUGGY, BUT NOT ENTIRELY MISERABLE.
SINCE THE FORECAST IS UNFOLDING AS EXPECTED, NO CHANGES OR
UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 957 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, BREEZES WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS TODAY. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL STEADILY
MOVE EAST, ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL STEADILY
CLIMB, SUPPORTING AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AS WELL AS AN
ISOLATED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY. FRESHENING EASTERLY BREEZES RETURN TUESDAY ALONG
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 957 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
VFR CIGS AND VIS WILL PREVAIL FOR BOTH EYW AND MTH FOR THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS
WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUD COVERAGE BETWEEN FL020 AND FL030.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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