054
FXUS62 KKEY 031850
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
250 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
OUR WEATHER HAS CONTINUED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN TRUE FLORIDA FASHION, THE EXCEPTION IS FOR
A HANDFUL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF HAWK CHANNEL AND
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS WELL AS THE WATERS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. A PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE NOTED EARLIER
ON CIMSS MIMIC PWAT HAS BEEN ADVECTING INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS, SO WE AREN'T TOO SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY ON THE KBYX
RADAR. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS ARE MUCH DEEPER THAN THE SHALLOW
ACTIVITY THIS MORNING, SUGGESTING THAT THE MID LEVELS ARE
MOISTENING. NOW THAT THESE SHOWERS ARE GAINING SOME VERTICAL
EXTENT, WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONS FOR ANY
LIGHTNING, BUT THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT STILL DOESN'T LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT CONTINUE TO
SHOW LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING. TAKING THAT INTO
CONSIDERATION AS WELL AS VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT, AND SOME
APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY, WE WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY TOMORROW. THE WHOLE DAY WILL SEE CONDITIONS THAT WOULD
SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOME DEGREE, BUT THE BEST
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY LOOKS LIKE IT'LL BE SOMETIME IN THE EARLY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GUIDANCE IS STILL NOT TOO SURE WHAT TO MAKE OF THE UPCOMING
PATTERN. A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
WILL ERODE THE RIDGING THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA, BUT THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ABLE TO RETURN DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK, BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEAN
GUIDANCE HAS OUR FORECAST AREA SANDWICHED BETWEEN A HIGH TO OUR
EAST AND A LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. AT FACE VALUE, THIS WOULD LEAD
TO ENHANCED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE, AND MAY PROVIDE SOME LIFT
FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY. WHILE IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO HASH OUT ANY
DETAILS, THIS IS A SETUP THAT WOULD LEAD TO GREATER RAINFALL
CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL IN THE MID 80S. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP TO
KEEP DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. WHILE THESE AREN'T NUMBERS THAT
ARE TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVY, OPPRESSIVE SUMMERTIME
HUMIDITY WE ALL KNOW AND LOVE, THESE DEW POINTS ARE JUST HIGH
ENOUGH TO BE NOTICEABLE WHEN OUTSIDE DURING THE DAY. OVERALL, NOT
A TERRIBLE WEEK AHEAD OF US, BUT IT'LL FEEL LIKE THE UNAVOIDABLE
TRANSITION TO SUMMER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, BREEZES WILL CONTINUE
TO SLACKEN ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A BERMUDA
HIGH WILL STEADILY MOVE EAST, ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE WILL STEADILY CLIMB, SUPPORTING AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AS WELL AS AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. FRESHENING EASTERLY BREEZES
RETURN BY TUESDAY ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH DURING THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS VEERED SOUTHEASTERLY AND WILL REMAIN NEAR
10 KNOTS. CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WILL
PERIODICALLY MOVE ACROSS EYW BEFORE SUNSET, AND CLOUD COVER IS
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CAUSE SHORT LIVED PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT THE
TERMINAL.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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