556
FXUS62 KKEY 040237
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1037 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
IT HAS BEEN A CALM NIGHT ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. KBYX RADAR WAS
ACTIVE EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ANY SHOWERS DISSIPATING BY
AROUND 430 PM. NO SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DETECTED SINCE AND IF ANY
HAVE, IT HAS BEEN ON THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND. GOES EAST
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE KEYS
WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CUMULUS AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE UPPER 70S WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND IS A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST
TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY EVENING. THIS HAS LOOSENED THE
GRIP SOME ACROSS THE KEYS RESULTING IN WEAKER BREEZES THAN
YESTERDAY. TAS A RESULT, MARINE PLATFORMS AROUND THE KEYS ARE
OBSERVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND ISLAND
CHAIN COMMUNITIES OBSERVING 10 TO 15 MPH.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. CAPE
VALUE MEASURED WAS 2232 J/KG WHICH IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. LAPSE RATES WERE ALSO QUITE HIGH BETWEEN
6-8 DEGREES CELSIUS PER KM. HOWEVER, THE SOUNDING REMAINS QUITE
DRY THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE. THE PWAT VALUE MEASURED WAS 1.29
INCHES WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MEDIAN FOR THE DATE. MOST OF THE
INGREDIENTS ARE THERE TO MAKE THE RADAR SEEM LIKE IT SHOULD BE
QUITE A BIT MORE ACTIVE TONIGHT THAN IT CURRENTLY IS, BUT WE
LACK A REAL FORCING MECHANISM IN A TRIGGER TO GET THE AIR PARCELS
RISING. THERE AREN'T ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THAT ARE WORTHY OF
NOTE EITHER ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE OPPOSITE WERE TRUE, IT
PROBABLY WOULD OF BEEN AN ACTIVE NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. BASED ON
ALL THIS, NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THE ONGOING OVERNIGHT
FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, BREEZES
WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND
TOMORROW. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL STEADILY MOVE EAST, ALLOWING FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL STEADILY CLIMB, SUPPORTING AN INCREASED
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AS WELL AS AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. FRESHENING EASTERLY
BREEZES RETURN BY TUESDAY ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH DURING
THE EARLY MORNING AND DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BACK TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 84 76 84 76 / 10 20 20 30
MARATHON 83 76 84 77 / 10 20 30 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....DR
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