333
FXUS62 KKEY 040802
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
402 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT, THE WESTERN FLANK OF AN
ATLANTIC HIGH IS RETREATING EASTWARD AND LEADING TO RELAXING
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME
NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLIES AND OUTSIDE THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF THE
STACKED LOW. MEANWHILE, WEAK LOWER LEVEL RIDGING WITH SOME DRY
LAYERS REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. LAST EVENING'S SOUNDING INDICATED
LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION AND SUBSTANTIAL CAPE. WITH THAT SAID,
THERE IS NO FORCING AND THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN FREE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS TRICKY. THE PRESENCE
OF THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A FAIRLY STRONG
SUBTROPICAL JET WRAPPING AROUND ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY, WILL
COOPERATE WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE IN MAINTAINING A MOIST CONFLUENT
AND CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE ZONE ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SETUP HAS ALREADY CONTRIBUTED TO
ONGOING CONVECTIVE BANDS ACROSS THIS BROAD REGION. THE NUANCED
PART IS WHETHER THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF THIS WILL BE ABLE TO NOSE
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. DIURNAL PATTERNS WILL LIKELY PLAY A
FACTOR AS THE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP TO STABILIZE
THE KEYS THROUGH THE DAY. BY TONIGHT, THE STACKED LOW WILL LIFT
EVER SO SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD, ALLOWING THE LOWER LEVEL RIDGE TO PUSH
BACK INTO FLORIDA AND KEEP THE BEST CONFLUENCE WELL NORTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH ALL THAT SAID, IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR PICTURE TO
CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THE KEYS AND IT IS PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS WITH MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS BY TONIGHT.
BY MID WEEK THE PERSISTENT LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
GULF AND FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE, EASTERLY BREEZES WILL FRESHEN AS
ATLANTIC RIDGING BUILDS INTO FLORIDA AND PRESSURES FALL IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALL THIS WILL RESULT IN FALLING RAIN
CHANCES AND MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
BREEZES.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, SYNOPTICS WILL BE
DOMINATED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND NEARBY SURFACE THROUGH LOWER
LEVEL RIDGING. AS A RESULT, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES, SLIGHT AT
BEST RAIN CHANCES, AND STEADY GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLIES ARE
EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
THE WESTERN TAIL OF AN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PULL FURTHER BACK INTO
THE ATLANTIC AS TROUGHING SWINGS INTO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. AS A RESULT, SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
DOWNWARDS TODAY AND REMAIN LIGHT TOMORROW INTO TUESDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO FRESHEN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE LIFTS NORTH INTO FLORIDA AND PRESSURE FALLS IN THE WESTERN
GULF.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN PERSISTS TODAY, PARTICULARLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER OR NOT THE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND
DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TERMINALS WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF BOTH TAFS.
NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT NEAR 10
KNOTS, BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 85 76 85 76 / 10 10 10 20
MARATHON 85 77 85 77 / 20 20 30 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JAM
DATA ACQUISITION.....JAM
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