466
FXUS62 KKEY 041528
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1128 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE
INTERESTING TO WATCH THIS MORNING, BUT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
STILL ON THE QUIET SIDE CLOSER TO HOME. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 10
AM EDT REPORTED TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S, AND DEW POINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THESE ARE DEW POINTS THAT WE USUALLY
ASSOCIATE WITH AIR THAT FEELS NOTICEABLY MUGGIER, AND THE AIR
WILL PROBABLY FEEL WARMER THAN THE TRUE AIR TEMPERATURE WHEN YOU
STEP OUTSIDE FOR BRUNCH THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT LIGHT TO GENTLE
BREEZES MAY HELP TO RELIEVE SOME OF THE STAGNANT FEELING THAT CAN
OCCUR WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS, BUT THE RELIEF WONT BE SIGNIFICANT.
THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM OUR RADIOSONDE LAUNCH THIS MORNING SHOWED
THE EFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE VERTICAL PROFILE
THAT HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO. THE CALCULATED PWAT
VALUE WAS 1.38". THE BALLOON LAUNCH PRIOR TO THE ONE FROM THIS
MORNING (00Z 5/4) CALCULATED A PWAT VALUE OF 1.27" AND THE LAUNCH
BEFORE THAT ONE (12Z 5/3) SHOWED 1.10". MOST OF THIS INCREASED
MOISTURE IS HAPPENING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AS WE CAN STILL SEE A SHALLOW WEDGE OF DRIER AIR
BETWEEN 800MB AND 550 MB.
OUR KBYX RADAR IS PICKING UP ON A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF OUR MARINE ZONES CURRENTLY AFFECTING
THE SWFL AREA. WE MENTION THIS BECAUSE THE CURRENT FORECAST
ADVERTISES 20 PERCENT POPS TODAY, AND WE HAVE TO DECIDE IF WE WANT
TO CONTINUE WITH THAT, OR IF THIS ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE ENOUGH
TO WARRANT AN ADJUSTMENT. AT FIRST GLANCE, IT IS TEMPTING TO BUMP
THESE POPS UP, HOWEVER, THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WE HAVE IN PLACE RIGHT
NOW MEANS THAT WE COULD SEE SOME CUBAN SHADOWING TODAY, AND THIS
WOULD GREATLY REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR ANY ACTIVITY. TAKING ALL OF
THIS IN CONSIDERATION, WE WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE WITH THE
SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) OF RAIN FOR TODAY, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO RETREAT EASTWARD AS TROUGHING TO OUR NORTH SEEMINGLY
EATS AWAY AT IT, AND BREEZES WILL RESPOND BY REMAINING LIGHT TO
GENTLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
FRESHEN HEADING INTO MID WEEK AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE LIFTS
NORTHWARD INTO FLORIDA AND PRESSURES FALL IN THE GULF.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING HAVE
QUICKLY ABATED TO 7 TO 10 KNOTS, WITH WINDS VEERING SLIGHTLY TO
SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING BRIEFLY VARIABLE, THEN BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 5
KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR ANY IMPACTS FROM
SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME, THE
CONVECTION OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TERMINALS TODAY, WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY DEVELOPING LATER TODAY OVER METRO
SOUTHEAST MAINLAND FLORIDA FAVORED TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF MTH. FOR
THESE REASONS, NO VCSH NOR VCTS WAS INDICATED IN THE TAFS THIS
TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 85 76 85 76 / 10 10 10 20
MARATHON 85 77 85 77 / 20 20 30 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JR
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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