386
FXUS62 KKEY 041919
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
319 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN FILLING IN ACROSS OUR SKIES OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAGGING ACROSS THE PENINSULA.
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS WE HEAD
INTO TONIGHT, BUT WE ARE STILL HOLDING OFF ON INCREASING POPS DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE CUBAN SHADOW. OVERLAYING GOES-19 VISIBILE
IMAGERY AND BOTH OUR KBYX AND MIAMI'S KAMX RADARS SHOWS THAT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SUPPORTED OVER THE
MAINLAND, AS WELL AS OVER THE WATERS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, WHEN WE
LOOK ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND OUR ADJACENT WATERS, THERE SEEMS
TO BE A BUBBLE THAT IS PREVENTING THE BOUNDARY FROM TRIGGERING ANY
ACTIVITY. UNLESS SOMETHING DRASTIC CHANGES IN THIS PATTERN WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THERE DOESN'T SEEM TO BE A REASON TO JUSTIFY
POPS GREATER THAN 20 PERCENT FOR TONIGHT AS WE STILL HAVE A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN OUR VERTICAL PROFILE. WE JUST NEED A
SOURCE OF LIFT TO GET THINGS GOING.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRAG EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION, AND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER AT SOME POINT DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THE PARENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND WILL ALLOW
FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK IN. AS THIS HAPPENS, OUR CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL DECREASE AND SUNNIER SKIES CAN RETURN. NEAR THE END
OF THE WEEK, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW MOVING INTO THE
GULF REGION, WITH A HIGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WOULD
ENCOURAGE INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL, BUT THE MESSY NATURE OF
THE PATTERN MEANS WE HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME WITH
RESPECT TO AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN SIMPLY
LOOKS A LITTLE GROSS FOR LACK OF A BETTER WORD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, A WEAK BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIP PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT, AND WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE INFLUENCE OF
THE BERMUDA HIGH OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE PREVAILING
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES TO BECOMING VARIABLE AT TIMES BEFORE
RESUMING A UNIFORM EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FRESHEN HEADING INTO
MID WEEK AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO FLORIDA AND
PRESSURES FALL IN THE GULF.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS HAVE BEEN VEERING FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH A FEW
HOURS OF VARIABLE WINDS LIKELY AT EYW THIS EVENING. EVENTUALLY,
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RESUME 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS OR PERHAPS A SHOWER POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME VCSH
HAVE BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS, BUT COULD BE ADDED LATER THIS
EVENING. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE
EARLIER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN GULF NOT NEARLY SO ROBUST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 76 85 77 85 / 20 20 20 0
MARATHON 77 84 77 84 / 30 30 20 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....JR
DATA ACQUISITION.....JR
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