376
FXUS62 KKEY 051553
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1153 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1039 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
IT HAS BEEN A BEAUTIFUL START TO THE WORK WEEK ALONG THE FLORIDA
KEYS AS WE HAVE A MIX OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 1030 AM EDT OBSERVATIONS REPORTED
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S, SO IT
TRULY FEELS LIKE A HUMID FLORIDA MORNING OUTSIDE. LIGHT TO GENTLE
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ARE KEEPING THE AIR MOVING, BUT THEY ARE NOT
THE FRESH BREEZES WE WANT TO SEE IF WE ARE LOOKING FOR SOME RELIEF
FROM THE HUMIDITY. OUR KBYX RADAR HAS ONLY DETECTED SHOWERS
OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA, BUT IT IS ALSO PICKING UP ON SOME CLOUD
STREAMERS EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE ISLAND CHAIN. OUR 12Z
RADIOSONDE LAUNCH SHOWED SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR ABOVE 500MB, AND THIS
IS IN LINE WITH THE GOES-19 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT SHOWS A
BLANKET OF DRY AIR OVER THE AREA. SURPRISINGLY, THE CALCULATED
PWAT VALUE WAS 1.40", SO THE CONCLUSION WE ARE DRAWING FROM THIS
IS THAT MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE SYNOPTIC (LARGER SCALE) PATTERN IS
UNFAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT ALL
OF THIS UNTAPPED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS COULD, IN THEORY,
SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE MESOSCALE (SMALLER SCALE) SO WE
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE 20 PERCENT POPS FOR TODAY.
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1039 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
LOCAL FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, AN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL
PUSH A BIT FURTHER WEST AS IT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF. AS A RESULT, LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL FRESHEN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. CAUTIONS
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER
MID WEEK, THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE SLOPPY WITH RIDGING BEING
THE MAIN DRIVER FOR SEASONABLE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1039 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WHILE SHOWERS CANNOT BE FULLY RULED OUT THROUGH THIS
EVENING, NO MENTION AT EITHER TERMINAL FOR THE TIME BEING DUE TO THE
QUICK NATURE OF THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST
TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 85 77 85 77 / 20 20 0 10
MARATHON 84 77 84 77 / 20 20 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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