987
FXUS62 KKEY 051913
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
313 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
UNLIKE YESTERDAY, OUR RADAR IS STILL ON THE QUIETER SIDE OF THINGS
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. GOES-19
SATELITTE IS STILL SHOWING MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES,
AND OUR KBYX RADAR IS PICKING UP ON OUR CLOUD STREAMERS EXTENDING
NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE ISLAND CHAIN. KBYX IS ALSO DETECTING THE
COPIOUS AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING OVER THE
MAINLAND, BUT THIS IS WITHIN WFO MIAMI'S CWA. EVEN THOUGH WE DON'T
HAVE ANY ACTIVITY OF OUR OWN AT THIS TIME, THERE IS STILL A NON-
ZERO CHANCE FOR SOMETHING TO DEVELOP. ALL OF THE CONVECTION OVER
THE MAINLAND WILL EVENTUALLY PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, AND THESE
COULD TRIGGER NEW AREAS OF CONVECTION TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY WHEN WE
TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION THAT OUR AIRMASS IS VIRTUALLY UNTAPPED.
FOR THAT REASON, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 20 PERCENT POPS FOR
TONIGHT.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, A DEEP LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. IN RESPONSE, RIDGING
WILL RETURN TO OUR AREA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NEAR NIL POPS ARE
STILL APPROPRIATE AS THE HEART OF THE HIGH MAY END UP OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO GENTLE BREEZES, AND LITTLE TEMPERATURE
SPREAD BETWEEN THE DAYTIME HIGHS AND THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, THE PATTERN LOOKS TO GIVE WAY TO
UNSETTLED WEATHER. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. PROVIDING A CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE TO OUR
AREA. THIS IS LIKELY WHY GUIDANCE IS ALREADY THROWING HIGHER POPS
THAN WE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. IT IS STILL TOO
EARLY TO HONE IN ON WHAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OR TIMING MAY LOOK LIKE,
BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT WE MAY SEE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN
RETURN AS EARLY AS THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE FURTHER WEST AS IT LIFTS
NORTH INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
AS A RESULT, LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL FRESHEN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. CAUTIONS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER MID WEEK, THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE SLOPPY
WITH RIDGING BEING THE MAIN DRIVER FOR SEASONABLE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WHILE SHOWERS CANNOT BE FULLY RULED OUT THROUGH TONIGHT, NO
MENTION AT EITHER TERMINAL FOR THE TIME BEING DUE TO THE QUICK
NATURE OF THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 85 77 85 77 / 20 10 10 0
MARATHON 84 78 84 78 / 20 20 10 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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