748
FXUS62 KKEY 060233
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1033 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
A CALM NIGHT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. KBYX RADAR IS NOT
DETECTING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY, THOUGH KAMX RADAR IN MIAMI'S AREA
HAD QUITE THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE
SINCE DISSIPATED. GOES EAST NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY SHOWS
A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE KEYS WITH THE MAIN CLOUDS BEING
CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE QUITE WARM YET
FOR THIS TIME OF THE EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD NEAR 80 DEGREES BEING
OBSERVED. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO QUITE STICKY WITH MOST STATIONS
OBSERVING MID 70S. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC IS HOLDING
ON JUST ENOUGH ACROSS THE KEYS TO RESULT IN MARINE PLATFORMS
OBSERVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND ISLAND
CHAIN COMMUNITIES OBSERVING 5 TO 10 MPH.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING REMAINS QUITE DRY ESPECIALLY IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WITH THE ONLY MOIST LAYER OCCURRING BETWEEN
925-900 MB. THE WIND PROFILE IS ONE THAT WOULDN'T SUPPORT SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 3000 FT AGL. THE MIXED LAYER CAPE FOR
INSTABILITY IS ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 1300-1500 J/KG SIMILAR TO LAST
EVENING. THE PWAT VALUE IS A BIT LOWER THAN LAST EVENING COMING IN
WITH 1.44 INCHES WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MEDIAN FOR THE DATE.
ALL IN ALL, A SIMILAR REGIME TO LAST NIGHT IS OCCURRING WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER TO HELP RAISE THE AIR PARCELS TO GET A SHOWER
LET ALONE A THUNDERSTORM. MOST OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE BUT
NOT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GET ANYTHING GOING. HOWEVER, SINCE THE
AIR IS UNTAPPED THROUGHOUT THE REGION AND WE DO HAVE SOME WEAK
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LINGERING IN THE AREA, A SHOWER OR TWO STILL
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, AN
ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE FURTHER WEST AS IT LIFTS
NORTH INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
AS A RESULT, LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL FRESHEN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. CAUTIONS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER MID WEEK, THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE SLOPPY
WITH RIDGING BEING THE MAIN DRIVER FOR SEASONABLE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 85 77 85 77 / 20 10 10 0
MARATHON 84 78 84 78 / 20 20 10 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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