086
FXUS62 KKEY 061852
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
252 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED SINCE THIS MORNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEN ON KBYX HAS PERSISTED IN THE UPPER KEYS AND
THE DISTANT STRAITS OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE UPPER KEYS THROUGHOUT
TODAY, ALTHOUGH A MAJORITY OF THE RAIN GAUGES FOR THE UPPER KEYS
HAVE REMAINED DRY AND MRMS 6 HOUR ESTIMATES A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE WATERS SHOWING THESE SHOWERS ARE VERY SHALLOW AND
WEAK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE MID 80S. THE
REEF OBSERVATION SITES ARE REPORTING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. FOR TONIGHT, SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AND NEAR NIL RAN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR INCREASING WINDS
IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS WINDS FRESHEN ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE
THE OTHER MARINE ZONES WILL STAY AT A MODERATE BREEZE THEREFORE
NOT REQUIRING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK THE KEYS WILL EXPERIENCE
WARM, MOSTLY STABLE, AND DRY CONDITIONS RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. APPROACHING THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
GULF ALLOWING FOR A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE, AND INCREASE
OF INSTABILITY. SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER HAVE BEEN INCLUDED
STARTING ON FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW, POPS ARE BEING HELD AT 40%
FOR THE EXTENDED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH,
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT MIGHT NEED TO BE
INCREASED AS WE APPROACH THAT TIME FRAME. BREEZES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR
INCREASING WINDS FOR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FROM SYNOPSIS, AN
ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE FURTHER WEST AS IT LIFTS
NORTH INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
AS A RESULT, LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL FRESHEN TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR INCREASING WINDS IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT. AFTER MID WEEK, THE PRESSURE PATTERN
WILL BE SLOPPY WITH RIDGING BEING THE MAIN DRIVER FOR SEASONABLE
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 07/18Z,
WITH NEAR-NIL MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY SUSTAINED AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS, WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS 16 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....BT
DATA ACQUISITION.....BT
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