369
FXUS62 KKEY 070854
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
454 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
YET ANOTHER WARM AND SOMEWHAT MOIST MORNING IS UPON THE FLORIDA
KEYS. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE READING NEAR 80
DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THIS IS DESPITE
ONGOING MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH BREEZES RECORDED ALONG THE
REEF. NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB DEPICTS LOOSE CLUSTERS OF FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS SLIDING OVER THE KEYS, INCLUDING LEFT OVER
BOUNDARIES ORIGINATING FROM THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. KBYX RADAR
DETECTED A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT RECENTLY FELL APART
OVER THE MIDDLE KEYS, BUT HAS BEEN OTHERWISE FREE OF PRECIPITABLE
ECHOES IN OUR AREA.
PERSISTENCE IS THE WORD USED TO DESCRIBE THE FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE NOSED OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA CONTINUES TO BE THE DRIVING FORCE OF OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER, WITH SOME HELP FROM WEAK TROUGHING IN THE GULF. MODERATE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK WITH THE USUAL DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS. AN ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE
WINDFIELD ALONG WITH DRY, MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR CONSTANTLY
FILTERED OVER THE KEYS FROM UPSTREAM WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES NEAR
NIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UNFORTUNATELY, AN UNCHANGING SHORT TERM
PATTERN ALSO MEANS NO ESCAPE FROM SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. JUST
A LITTLE TASTE OF WHAT IS ON THE WAY IN THE COMING SUMMER MONTHS.
THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED THIS WEEKEND. DEEP TROUGHING
FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL PIVOT SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME, A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE KEYS WITH BREEZES
BECOMING MORE FRESH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE LOW WILL ALSO DRAW
A LARGE SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH THAT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES FROM THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. WHILE THIS IS A SIMILAR
NARRATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE, A FEW CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE THIS TIME AROUND. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE SLOWING DOWN THE
SHIFTING OF MOISTURE OVER FLORIDA, RESULTING IN THE START OF
HIGHER RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES BEING PUSHED INTO SATURDAY FROM
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS DELAY MAY BE DUE TO A LOW IN THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC KEEPING THE RIDGE PINNED OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. EXPECT THIS FORECAST TO CONTINUE CHANGING AS
WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND SINCE A FORECAST INVOLVING FEATURES THAT
HAVE YET TO DEVELOP TEND TO BE SOMEWHAT VOLATILE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS, HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION UNTIL WINDS DECREASE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FROM
SYNOPSIS, AN ATLANTIC RIDGE NOSED THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES. THIS ALONG WITH
SLOPPY TROUGHING IN THE GULF WILL KEEP BREEZES MODERATE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR FRESHENING WINDS
AND INCREASED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS TODAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE GENTLE TO MODERATE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 84 77 86 78 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON 86 78 86 78 / 0 0 0 0
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....11
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