325
FXUS62 KKEY 240812
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
412 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
YESTERDAY, THE DAILY LOW TEMPERATURE MEASURED AT THE FLORIDA KEYS
MARATHON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TIED THE PRIOR RECORD WARM MINIMUM
OF 82 DEGREES. THAT OBSERVATION SETS THE STAGE FOR TODAY ACROSS
THE KEYS; IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WARMER THAN NORMAL, MUGGY, AND
PRIMED FOR POTENTIAL WATERSPOUTS SOMEWHERE ALONG THE ISLAND
CHAIN. CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG
MOST OF THE KEYS, BUT SOME SPOTS IN THE LARGER ISLANDS ARE ABLE
TO RADIATE DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO
HOVER NEAR THE MID 70S AND RADIATION FOG MAY FORM ON BIG PINE KEY.
RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM KBYX THIS MORNING DO NOT SHOW
PRECIPITATING CLOUDS, AND GOES-EAST NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGBS
HIGHLIGHT ONLY OCCASIONAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
WATERS. TODAY, ONE CAN EXPECT PERSISTENCE TO BE THE KEYWORD FOR
THE FORECAST. SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE AS
THE ISLAND CHAIN HEATS UP AND WINDS START TO VEER EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY. OVERALL, THE KEY POINT IS TO STAY HYDRATED!
LOOKING AHEAD, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BECOME A BIT STAGNANT
FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOW LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK. BUILDING AND WEAKENING OF A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO AN QUEBEC WILL LET BREEZES FRESHEN
AND SLACKEN ON A DIURNAL CYCLE. SUSTAINED HIGH PRESSURE MAY BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN BY THURSDAY TO FRIDAY, AS HINTED BY A DROP IN WINDS
IN STATISTICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS EXPECT
SOUTHEASTERLIES TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. DAYS THUS WILL BE
WARMER, MUGGY, AND MARKED BY BURSTS OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.
KEEP AN EYE ON THE RADAR, BECAUSE SHOWERS CAN FORM VERY QUICKLY IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT!
MARINE
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE AND
OFFSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, LIGHT
TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL FRESHEN TO GENTLE TO MODERATE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, ALLOWING BREEZES TO VEER SOUTHEASTERLY. IN
RESPONSE, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES. MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BETWEEN 4 TO 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AFTER DAYBREAK AND THEN BECOMING MAINLY EASTERLY
THIS EVENING.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW
TEMPERATURE OF 82F WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST SET BACK IN 2024.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1873.
ALSO, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 82F WAS RECORDED IN
MARATHON SET BACK ON THIS DATE IN 2008. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR
MARATHON DATE BACK TO 1951.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 91 81 90 81 / 10 20 20 20
MARATHON 88 81 89 82 / 20 20 20 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MJV
DATA ACQUISITION.....MJV
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