509
FXUS62 KKEY 250833
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
433 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
IT HAS BEEN A CALM NIGHT ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. KBYX RADAR IS
DETECTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE DISTANT STRAITS
OF FLORIDA AND THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS NORTHWEST OF THE MARQUESAS
KEYS. GOES EAST NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY LOW
LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH STRATOCUMULUS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MORE RIGOROUS SHOWER NORTHWEST OF MARQUESAS KEYS.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO FLORIDA. THIS IS LEADING TO MARINE
PLATFORMS AROUND THE KEYS OBSERVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES NEAR
10 KNOTS AND ISLAND CHAIN COMMUNITIES OBSERVING NEAR 10 MPH.
FORECAST
THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OF THE
RINSE AND REPEAT VARIETY. THE KEYS WILL LARGELY MISS OUT ON MOST
OF THE ACTION, HOWEVER, THIS MAY CHANGE A LITTLE BIT FOR TODAY
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES THAT HAVE
BEEN MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
WILL NUDGE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL CARVE OUT SOME VERY
SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. WITH THIS FACTOR AS WELL AS AMPLE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE, WE EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
TO BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER, A
WASHOUT OF A DAY IS NOT EXPECTED BY ANY MEANS. MOISTURE REMAINS
FAIRLY STATIC HEADING INTO MID WEEK BUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A LITTLE MORE OF A CAP ON THE
ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS. MOISTURE
REMAINS AMPLE WHICH RESULTS IN SLIGHT CHANCES (20%) CONTINUING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST PEAKING AND LULLING
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK, BECOMING SOUTHEAST AT TIMES. ALSO,
EXPECT SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S.
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHICH WILL ERODE THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER, INCREASE IN MOISTURE, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT DETAILS FOR LATE
WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND, THEREFORE, WE RECOMMEND CHECKING BACK FOR
UPDATES AS WE NEAR THIS TIMEFRAME. ALSO, A REMINDER THAT HURRICANE
SEASON STARTS ONE WEEK FROM TODAY ON SUNDAY, JUNE 1ST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MEANDERING AND FLUCTUATING IN STRENGTH
SLIGHTLY DAY TO DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES, OCCASIONALLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. IN
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, BREEZES MAY OCCASIONALLY BECOME MODERATE
TO FRESH. BREEZES WILL PEAK LATE EVENING INTO THE MORNING HOURS
AND LULL IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGHOUT THE 06Z
TAF PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS ARE BUILDING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS OUT
OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AFTER
SUNRISE, AND SHOWERS NEAR THE TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. HOWEVER, NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE IS PRESENT TO MAKE AN
ESTIMATE OF WHEN SHOWERS WILL FORM, THUS TEMPOS ARE NOT PRESENTLY
IN THE TAFS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 89 82 89 82 / 20 20 10 20
MARATHON 89 83 89 82 / 20 20 20 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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