935
FXUS62 KKEY 251749
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
149 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
MAINLY AT MTH, THEREFORE, MTH HAS MENTION OF VCSH. AT THIS TIME
DIRECT IMPACTS OF EITHER TERMINAL ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT IF NEED BE
TEMPO WILL INDICATE CONDITIONS CHANGE. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEASTERLY AT NEAR 10 KNOTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1104 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
A SLIGHTLY ACTIVE MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
KBYX DETECTS SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN WAXING AND WANING IN
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE MIDDLE KEYS, MAINLY NEAR LAYTON, AND A
STRONGER CELL CURRENTLY OUT IN THE DEEP GULF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES. APART FROM THOSE AREAS NOT TOO MUCH HAS
FLOURISHED AS OF YET. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE
CREEPING INTO THE UPPER 80S AS THINGS HEAT UP. GOES-19 SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BEYOND THE AREAS WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY, CLOUD
COVERAGE IS MINIMAL ALLOWING FOR IT TO GET PRETTY STEAMY OUTSIDE.
WINDS ACROSS THE REEF ARE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY, WE ARE EXPECTING A SIMILAR PATTERN TO WHAT
WE'VE BEEN EXPERIENCING FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, A
MAJORITY OF WHICH WILL BE OVER OUR WATERS, AND SOUTHEASTERLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES. NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.
FORECAST
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OF THE
RINSE AND REPEAT VARIETY. THE KEYS WILL LARGELY MISS OUT ON MOST
OF THE ACTION, HOWEVER, THIS MAY CHANGE A LITTLE BIT FOR TODAY
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES THAT HAVE
BEEN MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
WILL NUDGE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL CARVE OUT SOME VERY
SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. WITH THIS FACTOR AS WELL AS AMPLE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE, WE EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
TO BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER, A
WASHOUT OF A DAY IS NOT EXPECTED BY ANY MEANS. MOISTURE REMAINS
FAIRLY STATIC HEADING INTO MID WEEK BUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A LITTLE MORE OF A CAP ON THE
ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS. MOISTURE
REMAINS AMPLE WHICH RESULTS IN SLIGHT CHANCES (20%) CONTINUING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST PEAKING AND LULLING
THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK, BECOMING SOUTHEAST AT TIMES. ALSO,
EXPECT SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S.
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHICH WILL ERODE THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER, INCREASE IN MOISTURE, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT DETAILS FOR LATE
WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND, THEREFORE, WE RECOMMEND CHECKING BACK FOR
UPDATES AS WE NEAR THIS TIMEFRAME. ALSO, A REMINDER THAT HURRICANE
SEASON STARTS ONE WEEK FROM TODAY ON SUNDAY, JUNE 1ST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1104 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT IN
THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, MEANDERING AND FLUCTUATING IN STRENGTH SLIGHTLY DAY TO DAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
BREEZES, OCCASIONALLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. IN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA, BREEZES MAY OCCASIONALLY BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH.
BREEZES WILL PEAK LATE EVENING INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND LULL IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page