141
FXUS62 KKEY 260831
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
431 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
ANOTHER CALM NIGHT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. KBYX RADAR
IS DETECTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
AND OFFSHORE WATERS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
GOES EAST NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY LOW LEVEL
CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH STRATOCUMULUS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MORE RIGOROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND
CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WITH
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO
FLORIDA. THIS IS LEADING TO MARINE PLATFORMS AROUND THE KEYS
OBSERVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND ISLAND
CHAIN COMMUNITIES OBSERVING 10 TO 15 MPH.
FORECAST
THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OF THE
RINSE AND REPEAT VARIETY. THE KEYS WILL LARGELY MISS OUT ON MOST
OF THE ACTION, HOWEVER, THIS MAY CHANGE A LITTLE BIT FOR TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE NAME OF THE GAME
ACROSS THE KEYS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. GOES EAST TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS SHOWS A PLUME OF SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR (PWATS OF 1.35 TO 1.50 INCHES) SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWESTWARD
INTO THE KEYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE DOING SO THIS MORNING FURTHER
ERODING THE PWATS OF 1.60 INCHES NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN WHERE
THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS. SUBTLE MOISTURE FLUCTUATIONS
LIKE THE ONE THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK AS THE KEYS REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IN PLACE, THIS WILL LEND TO PROVIDING A LID OR CAP ON THE
ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS WELL AS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE, SLIGHT CHANCES (20%) CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST PEAKING
AND LULLING THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK, BECOMING SOUTHEAST AT TIMES.
ALSO, EXPECT SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S.
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
CHANGE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHICH WILL ERODE THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, INCREASE IN MOISTURE, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT DETAILS
(I.E. TIMING, INTENSITY, RAINFALL AMOUNTS, ETC) FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AND BEYOND, THEREFORE, WE RECOMMEND CHECKING BACK FOR UPDATES AS
WE NEAR THIS TIMEFRAME. ONE OTHER THING TO NOTE IS MODEL GUIDANCE
IS NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME
CLOSED OFF ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING IN PLACE FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL
DAYS. A WET PATTERN MAY BE LOOMING FOR THE KEYS IN THE NOT TOO
DISTANT FUTURE. ALSO, A REMINDER THAT HURRICANE SEASON STARTS IN
LESS THAN ONE WEEK NOW ON SUNDAY, JUNE 1ST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MEANDERING AND FLUCTUATING IN STRENGTH
SLIGHTLY DAY TO DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES, OCCASIONALLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. IN
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, BREEZES MAY OCCASIONALLY BECOME MODERATE
TO FRESH. BREEZES WILL PEAK LATE EVENING INTO THE MORNING HOURS
AND LULL IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
VFR VIS AND CIGS WILL PREVAIL FOR EYW AND MTH THROUGHOUT THE 06Z
TAF PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR 10
KNOTS, THOUGH EXPECT A DIURNAL CYCLE WHERE WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER DURING THE DAY. EXPECT PULSES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
DAY, BUT NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE IS THERE TO TIME SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE TERMINALS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY, THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL
TOTAL OF 2.89 INCHES WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST SET BACK IN 1882.
RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.
ALSO, THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL TOTAL OF 2.51 INCHES WAS RECORDED
IN MARATHON SET BACK ON THIS DATE IN 1985. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR
MARATHON DATE BACK TO 1950.
OF NOTE
IN 1899, H. R. BOYNTON, AN OBSERVER WITH THE WEATHER BUREAU
OFFICE IN KEY WEST, RECORDED DETAILS OF THE OCCURRENCE OF NUMEROUS
WATERSPOUTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLAND ON THE MORNING OF THE
26TH. HIS OBSERVATIONS AND DRAWINGS OF THE EVENT WERE PUBLISHED IN
THE NATIONAL SCIENTIFIC JOURNAL "MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW".
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 89 82 89 82 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 89 83 90 83 / 20 20 20 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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