503
FXUS62 KKEY 261734
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
134 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THORUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THIS EVENING
SO NO MENTION OF VCSH AT EITHER TERMINAL. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1054 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
BEAUTIFUL DAY FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS! KBYX RADAR HAS REMAINED
SHOWER-FREE THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH GOES-19 SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTING VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE ALREADY NEARING THE UPPER 80S AND DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S MAKING FOR A TOASTY DAY OUTSIDE. WINDS
ALONG THE REEF ARE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS MORNING'S
12Z KKEY SOUNDING REVEALED A DRY PROFILE AND MIMIC PRECIPITABLE
WATER SUGGESTS FURTHER DRY AIR WILL PROGRESS WEST INTO OUR AREA
THROUGHOUT TODAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIMITED, ALTHOUGH WE ARE IN THE TIME OF YEAR NOW WHERE
THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE FOR SOME POP UP SHOWERS
AT ANY POINT IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE TREND OF
LULLING IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS AND ARE EXPECTED
TO RE- PEAK LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AS WE WILL BE IN A SIMILAR PATTERN
FOR THE NEXT FEW PERIODS.
FORECAST
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OF THE
RINSE AND REPEAT VARIETY. THE KEYS WILL LARGELY MISS OUT ON MOST
OF THE ACTION, HOWEVER, THIS MAY CHANGE A LITTLE BIT FOR TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE NAME OF THE GAME
ACROSS THE KEYS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. GOES EAST TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS SHOWS A PLUME OF SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR (PWATS OF 1.35 TO 1.50 INCHES) SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWESTWARD
INTO THE KEYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE DOING SO THIS MORNING FURTHER
ERODING THE PWATS OF 1.60 INCHES NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN WHERE
THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS. SUBTLE MOISTURE FLUCTUATIONS
LIKE THE ONE THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK AS THE KEYS REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IN PLACE, THIS WILL LEND TO PROVIDING A LID OR CAP ON THE
ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS WELL AS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE, SLIGHT CHANCES (20%) CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST PEAKING
AND LULLING THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK, BECOMING SOUTHEAST AT TIMES.
ALSO, EXPECT SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S.
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
CHANGE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHICH WILL ERODE THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, INCREASE IN MOISTURE, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT DETAILS
(I.E. TIMING, INTENSITY, RAINFALL AMOUNTS, ETC) FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AND BEYOND, THEREFORE, WE RECOMMEND CHECKING BACK FOR UPDATES AS
WE NEAR THIS TIMEFRAME. ONE OTHER THING TO NOTE IS MODEL GUIDANCE
IS NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME
CLOSED OFF ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING IN PLACE FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL
DAYS. A WET PATTERN MAY BE LOOMING FOR THE KEYS IN THE NOT TOO
DISTANT FUTURE. ALSO, A REMINDER THAT HURRICANE SEASON STARTS IN
LESS THAN ONE WEEK NOW ON SUNDAY, JUNE 1ST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1054 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, MEANDERING AND FLUCTUATING IN STRENGTH SLIGHTLY DAY TO DAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
BREEZES, OCCASIONALLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. IN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA, BREEZES MAY OCCASIONALLY BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH.
BREEZES WILL PEAK LATE EVENING INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND LULL IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AP
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