619
FXUS62 KKEY 270246
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1046 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1033 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER MOSTLY QUIET EVENING SHIFT ALONG THE FLORIDA
KEYS AS WE NEAR THE END OF MEMORIAL DAY. OUR KBYX RADAR SHOWS
ALMOST ALL OF THE CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTH FLORIDA
HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, AND IT DOESN’T SEEM
LIKE ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS CONVECTION MADE IT TO OUR
FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE SEEN SOME SHOWERS WAXING AND WANING OFF OF
THE WESTERN COAST OF NORTH ANDROS, AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THESE SHOWERS IN CASE THEY END UP BEING THE TRIGGER FOR ANY
NIGHTTIME ACTIVITY HERE. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM THE BALLOON LAUNCH
THIS EVENING DOESN’T SHOW ANY PROMINENT CAPPING THAT WOULD INHIBIT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT, BUT WE ARE STILL LACKING A LIFTING MECHANISM.
ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY THAT THE INHERITED 20 PERCENT POPS SEEM
APPROPRIATE, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GOES-19
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS DOESN’T SHOW MUCH IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER.
SOME OF THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE PENINSULA IS SPREADING OVER THE UPPER KEYS, SO SKIES THAT WAY
WILL BE ON THE CLOUDIER SIDE. ELSEWHERE, ONLY A HANDFUL OF LOW
LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE PASSING BY.
10 PM EDT OBSERVATIONS SHOWED TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S, AND WE STILL EXPECT THAT THESE NUMBERS WILL COME DOWN ONLY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. TAKING EVERYTHING
INTO CONSIDERATION, THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE DOES NOT NEED ANY
CHANGES OR UPDATES AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1033 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS LOCAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, MEANDERING AND FLUCTUATING IN STRENGTH SLIGHTLY DAY
TO DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BREEZES, OCCASIONALLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA, BREEZES MAY OCCASIONALLY BECOME MODERATE TO
FRESH. BREEZES WILL PEAK LATE EVENING INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND
LULL IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS. LOOKING AHEAD, GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN THAT MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE END OF THE
WEEK, BUT DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SPARSE UNTIL WE GET CLOSER
TO THAT TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS WITH
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS. SKY CONDITIONS WILL
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN SKC AND FEW NEAR FL020.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY, IN 1899, H. R. BOYNTON, AN
OBSERVER WITH THE WEATHER BUREAU OFFICE IN KEY WEST, RECORDED
DETAILS OF THE OCCURRENCE OF NUMEROUS WATERSPOUTS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE ISLAND ON THE MORNING OF THE 26TH. HIS OBSERVATIONS AND
DRAWINGS OF THE EVENT WERE PUBLISHED IN THE NATIONAL SCIENTIFIC
JOURNAL "MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW".
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 82 89 82 89 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 83 90 83 90 / 20 20 20 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....MC
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