667
FXUS62 KKEY 270830
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
430 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
IT HAS BEEN A CALM NIGHT ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AS WE ENTER THIS
LAST WORK WEEK FOR THE MONTH OF MAY. KBYX RADAR IS NOT DETECTING
ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE KEYS, THOUGH, IT IS PICKING UP ON A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS MIAMI'S AREA JUST TO THE NORTHEAST. GOES
EAST NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY LOW LEVEL CUMULUS
STREAMERS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN
ARE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WITH
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE CONTINUING TO EXTEND WESTWARD
INTO FLORIDA. THIS IS LEADING TO MARINE PLATFORMS AROUND THE KEYS
OBSERVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND ISLAND
CHAIN COMMUNITIES OBSERVING 10 TO 15 MPH.
FORECAST
THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OF THE
RINSE AND REPEAT VARIETY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE NAME OF THE GAME ACROSS THE KEYS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
GOES EAST TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS SHOWS PWATS OF
1.30 TO 1.60 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE KEYS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER,
YOU WOULD THINK THERE WOULD BE MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH PWATS AS HIGH AS THEY ARE. HOWEVER, WE ARE MISSING TWO VERY
IMPORTANT INGREDIENTS WHICH ARE: A TRIGGER AND INSTABILITY (CAPE
VALUES OF 200-400 J/KG. ALSO TO ADD TO THE MISSING INGREDIENTS, WE
HAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE WHICH WILL LEND TO PROVIDING A
LID OR CAP ON THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL LIMIT THE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL AS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES TRY TO
GROW WILL ENTRAIN DRIER AIR ALOFT AND QUICKLY BECOME CHOKED OFF.
SUBTLE MOISTURE FLUCTUATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK AS THE KEYS REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE. THEREFORE, SLIGHT CHANCES
(10%) CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK WHICH IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF 20%. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST PEAKING AND LULLING THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK, BECOMING
SOUTHEAST AT TIMES. ALSO, EXPECT SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 80S.
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
CHANGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THIS TROUGH. HOWEVER, THEY DIFFER ON WHAT HAPPENS
(I.E. EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH, DOES IT CUT OFF OR DOES IT LIFT
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND GET REPLACED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
AGAIN?) AS WE GET INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WE EXPECT THIS INFORMATION TO BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER
THE COMING DAYS AS WE GET CLOSER AND GUIDANCE CONVERGES ON A
SOLUTION. WHAT WE KNOW RIGHT NOW IS THE PATTERN LOOMING MAY BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, INCREASE IN MOISTURE, AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES. QUESTIONS THAT STILL NEED TO BE ANSWERED ARE
THE TIMING, INTENSITY, AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS A RESULT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN. THIS WILL BECOME CLEARER IN THE COMING
DAYS. WE RECOMMEND CONTINUING TO CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.
ALSO, A REMINDER THAT HURRICANE SEASON STARTS IN LESS THAN ONE
WEEK NOW ON SUNDAY, JUNE 1ST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MEANDERING AND FLUCTUATING IN STRENGTH
SLIGHTLY DAY TO DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES, OCCASIONALLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. IN
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, BREEZES MAY OCCASIONALLY BECOME MODERATE
TO FRESH. BREEZES WILL PEAK LATE EVENING INTO THE MORNING HOURS
AND LULL IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS. LOOKING AHEAD,
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN THAT MAY LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
END OF THE WEEK, BUT DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SPARSE UNTIL WE
GET CLOSER TO THAT TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
VFR VIS AND CIGS PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH FOR THE UPCOMING 06Z TAF
PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS
WITH SLIGHT FRESHENING AND SLACKENING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
SHOWERS WILL BRIEFLY PULSE UP DURING THE DAY WITH CLOUD BASES
OCCASIONALLY LOWERING BELOW FL020.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 88 82 89 82 / 10 0 0 0
MARATHON 89 82 89 82 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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