404
FXUS62 KKEY 280831
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
431 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE KEYS THIS MORNING. KBYX RADAR
HAS NOT DETECTED ANY SHOWERS ALL NIGHT UNTIL RECENTLY. A COUPLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE PERCOLATED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS
NEAR T TOWER. THESE SHOWERS WERE MOVING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AT
NEAR 15 KNOTS. GOES EAST NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY SHOWS
MOSTLY LOW LEVEL CUMULUS STREAMERS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE CONTINUING TO
EXTEND WESTWARD INTO FLORIDA. THIS IS LEADING TO MARINE PLATFORMS
AROUND THE KEYS OBSERVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS AND ISLAND CHAIN COMMUNITIES OBSERVING 10 TO 15 MPH.
FORECAST
DEEP MEAN LAYER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE KEYS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THIS RIDGE CENTERED JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. GOES EAST TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW)
PRODUCTS SHOW PWATS RANGING FROM 1.20 INCHES WHICH IS RIGHT
AROUND THE 10% PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE TO 1.60 INCHES WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE MEDIAN FOR THE DATE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER AND
VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY, THUNDER HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY. AT THE VERY BEST, ISOLATED SHALLOW SHOWERS
WILL BE THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO AS ANY SHOWERS THAT TRY TO GROW
VERTICALLY WILL MOST LIKELY ENTRAIN THE DRIER ALOFT QUICKLY
CHOKING THEM OFF BEFORE THEY HAVE TIME TO BECOME A THUNDERSTORM.
ALSO, THE MAIN CATALYST FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE SPEED
CONVERGENCE OR CONFLUENCE. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS LOW
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, HOWEVER, THIS TIME OF YEAR GETS RISKY TO
REMOVE THUNDER FOR CONSECUTIVE PERIODS AS ALL IT TAKES IS ONE.
HOWEVER, THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT LATER UPDATES MAY REMOVE THUNDER
FROM ONE OR A FEW OF THESE PERIODS THROUGH FRIDAY. ALSO, SLIGHT
CHANCE (10%) REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE KEYS REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG WESTERN
ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE. DUE TO THIS, WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST PEAKING AND LULLING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, BECOMING SOUTHEAST AT TIMES. ALSO, EXPECT SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S.
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW
THAT THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING, AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS
TROUGH. HOWEVER, THEY CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON WHAT HAPPENS (I.E.
EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH, DOES IT CUT OFF OR DOES IT LIFT OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND GET REPLACED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AGAIN?) AS
WE GET INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WE EXPECT THIS INFORMATION TO BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER THE COMING
DAYS AS WE GET CLOSER AND GUIDANCE CONVERGES ON A SOLUTION.
WHAT WE KNOW RIGHT NOW: THIS PATTERN WILL MOST LIKELY BRING:
*INCREASE IN MOISTURE
*INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
*SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
QUESTIONS THAT STILL NEED TO BE ANSWERED ARE THE TIMING,
INTENSITY, AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS A RESULT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
PATTERN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME CLEARER IN THE COMING DAYS.
WE RECOMMEND CONTINUING TO CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.
ALSO, CONTINUED REMINDER THAT HURRICANE SEASON STARTS ON SUNDAY,
JUNE 1ST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. FROM SYNOPSIS, GENTLE TO
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES, OCCASIONALLY SOUTHEASTERLY,
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. BREEZES WILL PEAK LATE EVENING INTO
THE MORNING HOURS AND LULL IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO GROW ON A WETTER REGIME HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE DELMARVA REGION WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH SOUTH ALONG THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA BUT IT WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH FOR THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. CLOUD CEILINGS WILL OSCILLATE BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN
MVFR AND VFR CIGS AS PATCHES OF BKN CLOUD BETWEEN FL020 AND FL030
MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS. VIS IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED, AND CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW
TEMPERATURE OF 84F WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST AND MARATHON BACK IN
2024. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1873, AND
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MARATHON DATE BACK TO 1951.
ALSO, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 84F WAS RECORDED
IN MARATHON SET BACK ON THIS DATE IN 2008. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR
MARATHON DATE BACK TO 1951.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 88 82 88 82 / 10 0 0 10
MARATHON 88 83 89 82 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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