480
FXUS62 KKEY 281421
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1021 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
WEATHER REMAINS QUIET AND TRANQUIL BUT WARM AND HUMID. THE FLORIDA
KEYS REMAIN ON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. THIS
IS KEEPING A LID ON OUR RAIN CHANCES, LACK OF CLOUDS, AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES AS OF 10 AM ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WITH AN ISOLATED NEAR 90 IN BIG PINE KEY. THIS COMBINED
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IS CREATING HEAT INDICES
OF 95 TO 100 DEGREES ALREADY. ONCE AGAIN, OUR WIND SPEEDS ARE
TAKING THE EDGE OFF THE REAL FEEL TEMP, BUT NOT BY MUCH.
GIVEN THE LARGE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING, IT
IS SAFE TO SAY MOST THINGS THAT TRY TO BUILD VERTICAL WILL HIT A
STURDY WALL ALOFT. THEREFORE, THERE IS NO NEED TO DEVIATE FROM THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE BELOW THE CAP
TO SUPPORT THE OCCASIONAL CU OR ISOLATED SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS. FEEL THAT IT WAS A GOOD CALL TO
PULL THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. AS SUCH, OPTING TO MAKE NO
CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES,
OCCASIONALLY SOUTHEASTERLY, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS A RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. BREEZES
WILL PEAK LATE EVENING INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND LULL IN THE
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW ON A WETTER REGIME
HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DELMARVA
REGION WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS FRONT
WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH SOUTH ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BUT IT
WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST TO
WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1021 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY
BREEZES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE KEYS THIS MORNING. KBYX RADAR
HAS NOT DETECTED ANY SHOWERS ALL NIGHT UNTIL RECENTLY. A COUPLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE PERCOLATED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS
NEAR T TOWER. THESE SHOWERS WERE MOVING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AT
NEAR 15 KNOTS. GOES EAST NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY SHOWS
MOSTLY LOW LEVEL CUMULUS STREAMERS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE CONTINUING TO
EXTEND WESTWARD INTO FLORIDA. THIS IS LEADING TO MARINE PLATFORMS
AROUND THE KEYS OBSERVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS AND ISLAND CHAIN COMMUNITIES OBSERVING 10 TO 15 MPH.
FORECAST
DEEP MEAN LAYER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE KEYS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THIS RIDGE CENTERED JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. GOES EAST TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW)
PRODUCTS SHOW PWATS RANGING FROM 1.20 INCHES WHICH IS RIGHT
AROUND THE 10% PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE TO 1.60 INCHES WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE MEDIAN FOR THE DATE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER AND
VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY, THUNDER HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY. AT THE VERY BEST, ISOLATED SHALLOW SHOWERS
WILL BE THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO AS ANY SHOWERS THAT TRY TO GROW
VERTICALLY WILL MOST LIKELY ENTRAIN THE DRIER ALOFT QUICKLY
CHOKING THEM OFF BEFORE THEY HAVE TIME TO BECOME A THUNDERSTORM.
ALSO, THE MAIN CATALYST FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE SPEED
CONVERGENCE OR CONFLUENCE. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS LOW
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, HOWEVER, THIS TIME OF YEAR GETS RISKY TO
REMOVE THUNDER FOR CONSECUTIVE PERIODS AS ALL IT TAKES IS ONE.
HOWEVER, THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT LATER UPDATES MAY REMOVE THUNDER
FROM ONE OR A FEW OF THESE PERIODS THROUGH FRIDAY. ALSO, SLIGHT
CHANCE (10%) REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE KEYS REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG WESTERN
ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE. DUE TO THIS, WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST PEAKING AND LULLING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, BECOMING SOUTHEAST AT TIMES. ALSO, EXPECT SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S.
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW
THAT THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING, AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS
TROUGH. HOWEVER, THEY CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON WHAT HAPPENS (I.E.
EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH, DOES IT CUT OFF OR DOES IT LIFT OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND GET REPLACED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AGAIN?) AS
WE GET INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WE EXPECT THIS INFORMATION TO BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER THE COMING
DAYS AS WE GET CLOSER AND GUIDANCE CONVERGES ON A SOLUTION.
WHAT WE KNOW RIGHT NOW: THIS PATTERN WILL MOST LIKELY BRING:
*INCREASE IN MOISTURE
*INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
*SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
QUESTIONS THAT STILL NEED TO BE ANSWERED ARE THE TIMING,
INTENSITY, AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS A RESULT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
PATTERN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME CLEARER IN THE COMING DAYS.
WE RECOMMEND CONTINUING TO CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.
ALSO, CONTINUED REMINDER THAT HURRICANE SEASON STARTS ON SUNDAY,
JUNE 1ST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 88 82 88 82 / 10 0 0 10
MARATHON 88 83 89 82 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...LIW
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....LIW
DATA ACQUISITION.....LIW
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