834
FXUS62 KKEY 290844
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
444 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
THE WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE KEYS EARLY
THIS MORNING. KBYX RADAR HAS NOT DETECTED ANY SHOWERS ALL NIGHT
UNTIL RECENTLY. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE NOW BEGUN TO PERCOLATE
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN,
INCLUDING THE CHAIN ITSELF. IN ADDITION, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EASTERN STRAITS AND ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. THESE SHOWERS WERE
MOVING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AT NEAR 15 KNOTS. GOES EAST NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY LOW LEVEL CUMULUS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH STRATOCUMULUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPER SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
CONTINUING TO EXTEND WESTWARD INTO FLORIDA. THIS IS LEADING TO
MARINE PLATFORMS WEST OF MIDDLE KEYS OBSERVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
BREEZES NEAR 15 KNOTS. MARINE PLATFORMS EAST OF THE MIDDLE KEYS
ARE OBSERVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. ISLAND
CHAIN COMMUNITIES ARE OBSERVING 10 TO 15 MPH.
FORECAST
DEEP MEAN LAYER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. GOES EAST TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCTS SHOW PWATS RANGING FROM 1.60 TO
1.80 INCHES (75% PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE) NORTH OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN AND 1.20 TO 1.5 INCHES (NEAR THE MEDIAN FOR THE DATE) SOUTH
OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE MAIN CATALYST FOR ANY SHOWERS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE LEFTOVER MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND PROCESSES
AS WELL AS SPEED CONVERGENCE AND CONFLUENCE. THUNDER WAS
MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST BUT THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A THUNDERSTORM
THROUGH THIS TIME IS LOW. IT REMAINS TOO RISKY TO REMOVE THUNDER
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AS ALL IT TAKES IS ONE. SLIGHT CHANCE (10%)
REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SINCE THE KEYS REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY, BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT TIMES. WINDS START TO SHIFT
ON FRIDAY AS THE KEYS WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT
NORTH OF THE REGION SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT TWO MORE VERY WARM AND HUMID DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S.
BEGINNING SATURDAY, LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE DELMARVA
REGION ON FRIDAY WILL MOVES NORTH NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS QUEBEC AND
NEW BRUNSWICK IN CANADA. ITS COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTHWARD TO
OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
UNSETTLED/WET PERIOD. WHILE THERE IS AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN SETUP NOW, THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY
HOW WET CERTAIN AREAS WILL GET. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A NARROW
PLUME OF INCREASED MOISTURE THAT WILL EITHER SETUP RIGHT OVER THE
KEYS OR REMAIN JUST NORTH OF US OVER CENTRAL OR SOUTH FLORIDA.
RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTH FLORIDA IS WHERE THIS MAY SETUP SO
OUR FRIENDS IN THE MIAMI AREA AND SOUTH FLORIDA COULD BE IN FOR
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER,
THE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN STILL AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
FINE TUNE THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. NONETHELESS, THE
KEYS CAN EXPECT AN:
*INCREASE IN MOISTURE- MORE COVERAGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS
*INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
*SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
IT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS ALONG WITH
THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE VERY LEAST, WE
EXPECT PERIODS/EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
CLEARER IN THE COMING DAYS. WE RECOMMEND CONTINUING TO CHECK BACK
FOR UPDATES.
ALSO, CONTINUED REMINDER THAT HURRICANE SEASON STARTS ON SUNDAY,
JUNE 1ST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS, FROM SYNOPSIS, GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZES, OCCASIONALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST, WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DELMARVA REGION SENDS A COLD
FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COASTLINE ON
FRIDAY. DUE TO THIS, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES
WILL SHIFT TO TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY WEAK FLOW KEEPING
BREEZES LIGHT TO GENTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION, A WETTER
REGIME CONTINUES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THIS PERIOD
WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH FOR THE UPCOMING 06Z TAF
PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY, BUT WILL
BEGIN TO SLACKEN FROM NEAR 10 KNOTS TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED PERIODICALLY, BUT VIS IMPACTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY, THE DAILY RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 95F WAS RECORDED AT MARATHON IN 1952. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR MARATHON DATE BACK TO 1951.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 88 82 89 81 / 0 10 10 10
MARATHON 88 83 89 83 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...MJV
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page