249
FXUS62 KKEY 291618
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1218 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1044 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
A TYPICAL WARM AND MUGGY MORNING IS UNFOLDING ALONG THE FLORIDA
KEYS AS 11 AM EDT OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S, AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S. QUICK MATH TELLS
US THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE PUSHING THE MID AND UPPER 90S. THIS
HAS BEEN AN ONGOING PATTERN LATELY AS HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN THE
DOMINATING SYNOPTIC FEATURE, AND THERE ARE ONLY SO MANY DIFFERENT
WAYS WE CAN DESCRIBE THIS PATTERN. BUT, WITH THE ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER, WE WILL NEVER COMPLAIN
ABOUT A CALM WEATHER PATTERN. LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY
BREEZES HAVE KEPT THE AIR MOVING, SO IT DOESN'T FEEL TOO STAGNANT
OUTSIDE, BUT WE ARE ON TRACK FOR OUR HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER
80S IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OUR 12Z SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A FEW SHALLOW CAPPING
INVERSIONS THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL PROFILE, SO CONVECTION IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS STILL SEEMS UNLIKELY. WILL GO AHEAD AND
MAINTAIN THE 10 PERCENT POPS FOR THE REST OF TODAY, AND TONIGHT,
DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER THE PENINSULA
MIGRATING OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE, THERE IS NOT MUCH TO
DISCUSS WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS UNFOLDING AS EXPECTED, AND NO UPDATES OR CHANGES ARE
NEEDED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1044 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
THERE ARE NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE
DOMINATING RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BREEZES WILL
SLACKEN FURTHER. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND,
AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK, MAY HELP TO INCREASE AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH THE
15Z TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE WILL
BACK EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL RETURN TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATER TONIGHT. LOW PROBABILITIES FOR
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ONSITE HAVE RESULTED IN NO ACTIVITY
MENTIONED IN THE TAFS, BUT AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE IF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WARRANTS.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY, IN 1952, MARTHON RECORDED
THEIR DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 95F. THIS IS TIED FOR THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN THE MONTH OF MAY. CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR MARATHON DATE BACK TO JUNE 1950.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 88 82 89 81 / 0 10 10 10
MARATHON 88 83 89 83 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...DP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....DP
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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