549
FXUS62 KKEY 260746
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
346 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ABOUND ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. A
FEW SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
KEYS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE KBYX RADAR DETECTS SCATTERED
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS OF THE OUTER GULF. ON
GOES-EAST OBSERVATIONS, THE SKY IS SURPRISINGLY CLOUD-FREE GIVEN
YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A PULSE OF DRY
AIR WRAPPING AROUND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IN A PATTERN CHARACTERISTIC
OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT). TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S,
DEPENDING ON WHEN SHOWERS LAST PASSED OVER THE ISLAND AND IF THE
SENSOR IS FURTHER INLAND. WINDS THIS EARLY MORNING ARE A BIT
CHAOTIC NEAR SHOWERS, BUT OTHERWISE ARE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY. A
LACK OF CLOUD COVER MEANS EFFECTIVE DAYTIME HEATING, SO THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED FOR PULSES OF SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY.
COMPLEXITIES ABOUND FOR TODAY'S FORECAST. THE TUTT LOCATED OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT SINKING REGIONS OF
AIR ACROSS THE KEYS WATERS ABOVE 500 MB. A SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THIS TUTT WILL SUPPLY MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS EAST OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS WATERS. WHILE THIS SETUP WAS PRESENT FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS,
THE ENVIRONMENT IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT. THE TUTT IS PROGGED TO LIFT
NORTH, WHICH WOULD PULL THE SURFACE TROUGH NORTH, AND VEER WINDS
SOUTHEASTERLY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INDICATE CLOUD LINES ARE NOT A
CONCERN, AND IF WINDS VEER FURTHER SOUTH A CUBAN SHADOW MAY FORM.
ANOTHER COMPLICATION IS THAT STATISTICAL GUIDANCE DIRECTS A
SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS WITHIN 48 HOURS. HOW
ALL THESE FEATURES INTERACT WILL DETERMINE SHOWER COVERAGE AND
WIND SPEED ACROSS THE CWF, AND IT ALL DEPENDS ON TIMING. THE SAL
COULD SUPPLY A MESOSCALE BOUNDARY FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION TODAY
AND TONIGHT BEFORE THE TUTT LIFTS NORTH, THE FEATURES COULD BE OUT
OF SYNC, IT'S DIFFICULT TO TELL. TODAY, AIMING FOR 40% POPS DUE
TO BROAD, WEAK WIND CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN BEFORE THE
SAL ARRIVES.
WEATHER ACROSS THE KEYS WILL QUIET DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SAL
IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER THE CWA UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERAL
RIDGING WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND SUSTAIN EAST
TO SOUTHEASTERLIES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. WHILE THE SAL WILL
LIMIT SHOWER COVERAGE, IT WILL NOT MITIGATE MUGGY JUNE TO JULY
WEATHER. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID 70S. BURSTS
OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK, AND THE ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A
PULSE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY NEXT TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY. MAKE SURE TO
STAY HYDRATED, AND IF YOU ARE A DAYTIME PERSON, ENJOY THE RELATIVE
LACK OF SHOWERS!
MARINE
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING WILL REBUILD
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. A SAHARAN AIR
LAYER WILL LIMIT SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT BURSTS OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH BRIEF TRANSIENT BOUTS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
AS A CHANCE OF PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS,
ESPECIALLY BEFORE 18Z WHEN VCSH IS EXPLICITLY INCLUDED IN THE TAF.
AFTER THIS, THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND SOMEWHAT LOWER RAIN
PROBABILITIES TO LEAVE ADDITIONAL MENTIONS TO BE COVERED BY
AMENDMENTS AND LATER ROUTINE TAFS AS NEEDED. WINDS FROM THE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL TURN TO SOUTHEAST AND SLACKEN
TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY SUNRISE.
CLIMATE
ON THIS DAY IN 2020, THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 86F
WAS RECORDED AT KEY WEST. THIS IS ALSO TIED FOR THE WARMEST LOW
TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN JUNE IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS
FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 90 82 92 83 / 50 40 30 20
MARATHON 88 82 89 83 / 50 40 30 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...AJP
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....MC
DATA ACQUISITION.....MC
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