085
FXUS62 KKEY 270244
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1044 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR THE GEORGIA AND FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST IS SLOWLY WOBBLING ITS WAY NORTHWESTWARD. THE KEYS
REMAIN WITHIN DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVELS SLOTTED AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW. WITH THAT SAID, THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW HAD ALREADY CONTRIBUTED TO SLOPPY LOWER LEVEL TROUGHING AND
ASSOCIATED ENHANCED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONFLUENT FLOW. A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CONVECTION WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER IN
THE DAY. HOWEVER, THE BROADER AREA IS LIKELY WORKED OVER AND ONLY
A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN ON OLD CUBAN BOUNDARIES ADVECTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE WESTERN STRAITS.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL FURTHER AWAY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO DRAW THE LOWER LEVEL
TROUGH AND MOISTURE FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. WITH THAT SAID, ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
RECOVERS, THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE CAPE AND MOISTURE, AND WEAK
INHIBITION. THIS ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED SOMEWHAT LOWER MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND THE USUAL LATE NIGHT CONFLUENCE MAXIMA SUGGESTS
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FOR THIS REASON,
WILL HOLD ON TO MID CHANCE POPS. ONCE THE RESIDUAL WIND SURGE DIES
OFF, THE ATLANTIC HIGH WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES.
THIS STEADY FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ON KEYS WATERS IS
LIKELY GETTING A BOOST FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE BEING DRIVEN BY AN ATLANTIC HIGH CENTERED A
BIT NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS SETTLED DOWN
QUITE A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. MUCH OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
ON THE QUIET SIDE. HOWEVER, FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS MORE LIKELY
THAN NOT LATE IN THE NIGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AND MODERATE AND GUSTY TO
START, BUT RELAX CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....11
DATA ACQUISITION.....DP
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