294
FXUS62 KKEY 270905
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
505 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
A SOMEWHAT QUIET NIGHT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS
MORNING. KBYX RADAR NOTES A FEW SHOWERS PERCOLATING ALONG A
BOUNDARY IN OUR DEEP GULF WATERS AND SOME STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE
IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, BUT IS OTHERWISE CLEAR OF PRECIPITABLE
ECHOES ACROSS THE CWA. MEANWHILE, GOES-19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS
IMAGERY NOTES A BLANKET OF LOW LEVEL CUMULUS INVADING THE ISLAND
CHAIN FROM THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DOES HINT AT
A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR THIS CLOUD DECK'S DEVELOPMENT, BUT IS
LIKELY BEING HINDERED BY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS SEEING
THAT SHOWERS ARE SLOW TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA. GENTLE TO MODERATE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ALONG THE REEF HAVE GRADUALLY SLACKENED
OVERNIGHT NOW FREE FROM THE UPTICK OBSERVED DUE TO CONVECTIVE
INFLUENCE FROM YESTERDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON LAND ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MAKING FOR
ANOTHER MOIST START TO THE DAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH OUR RECENT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH OUT OF SOUTHEAST CONUS AS
MEAN LAYER RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN OVER OUR AREA. GENTLE TO
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PERSIST AS A SURFACE HIGH
NOSES IN BEHIND THE REFLECTED LOW. MEANWHILE, A TONGUE OF DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) IS PROGGED TO ADVECT
OVER THE KEYS FOR THE WEEKEND. THE EARLIER EDGES OF THIS SAL COULD
BE WHAT'S HOLDING BACK A FEW OF THE SHOWERS IN THE STRAITS AT THE
MOMENT, BUT YESTERDAY'S 00Z SOUNDING WAS CERTAINLY MOIST ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH THAT IN MIND, CHANCE POPS
ARE STILL HELD FOR TODAY AT LEAST AS THE NEW AIR MASS TRANSITIONS
IN. THIS WEEKEND, RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME SLIGHT AT BEST AS DRY
SUBSIDENCE WILL SHUT DOWN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE FORMATION. AS WET
SEASON IS WELL UNDERWAY, A SHOWER OR TWO STILL CANNOT BE FULLY
RULED OUT.
THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD FOR A FEW DAYS UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES THE KEYS FROM THE EAST. GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE SOMETIME ON MONDAY BRINGING NOT ONLY
AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE BUT ALSO SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. CHANCE POPS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THIS LOW WOBBLES ABOUT FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE STRETCHED OUT OVER FLORIDA KEEPS
ITSELF GENERALLY IN POSITION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD SUSTAINING THE
USUAL EASTERLY BREEZES. HOWEVER, AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO
BUILD IN NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE ATLANTIC HIGH BACKS OFF TO
THE EAST THUS SLACKENING WINDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN TODAY. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING WILL REBUILD
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS WATERS. A SAHARAN AIR
LAYER WILL LIMIT SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT BURSTS OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO A CHANCE
SHOWER AND DENSER CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
NEAR 10 KNOTS. EXPECT SUSTAINED FL200 CLOUD COVER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 89 82 90 82 / 30 20 20 10
MARATHON 90 82 90 82 / 30 20 20 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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