963
FXUS62 KKEY 280839
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
439 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
A QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS UNDERWAY FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS
MORNING. KBYX RADAR IS CLEAR OF ANY PRECIPITABLE ECHOES AS SHOWERS
FROM YESTERDAY EVENING HAVE LONG SINCE DISPERSED. GOES-19
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB IMAGERY DEPICTS LINES OF SHALLOW
CUMULUS DRIFTING TOWARDS THE KEYS WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS BUBBLING
IN FROM THE SOUTH. SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE QUITE SIMILAR
TO 24 HOURS AGO WITH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S. MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BREEZES PREVAIL ON THE REEF TRACT REINFORCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE NOSED OVER MAINLAND FLORIDA. A FEW MORE SHALLOW LINES OF
LOW CLOUDS APPEAR UPSTREAM BUT LOOKS NOTABLY DRIER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.
THE BIG WEATHER STORY TODAY FOR THE KEYS IS THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER
(SAL) CURRENTLY ADVECTING INTO OUR AREA. WITH THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM LAST WEEK LOSING ITS INFLUENCE TO RIDGING
BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA, THE SAL RIDING ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE FINALLY MAKES ITS PASS ACROSS
THE KEYS THIS WEEKEND. WHILE OUR 00Z BALLOON SOUNDING FROM
YESTERDAY EVENING WAS TOO EARLY TO CAPTURE THE DRY AIR FILTERING
IN ALOFT, CIMSS MIMIC TPW SHOWS DRIER VALUES PRESENT OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS THIS MORNING. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A LACK OF
PRECIPITATION IN OUR CWA. WHILE THIS FORECAST IS ABOUT AS DRY AS
IT CAN GET FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WET SEASON LIKES TO BE SOMEWHAT
UNRULY WHEN IT COMES TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE OPTED TO
GO WITH DIME POPS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO TO COVER POSSIBLE ISOLATED INCIDENTS OF SHOWERS
POPPING UP BRIEFLY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AS THE SAL PUSHES
WEST PAST THE KEYS. POPS WILL FURTHER INCREASE AT THE START OF THE
WEEK AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CYCLES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
KEYS. GUIDANCE LOOKS TO PLACE THIS FEATURE ON OUR DOORSTEP
SOMETIME MONDAY ALONG WITH BOTH A SURFACE REFLECTION AND A FRESH
UNDULATION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. OF COURSE, THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC PLAYERS HERE
ALONG WITH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION, SO POPS HAVE BEEN
MERELY NUDGED UP FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT TO NOTE THE PERIOD
MOST LIKELY TO SEE RAIN ACCORDING TO RECENT MODEL RUNS. THIS
TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED AS WE APPROACH THE START OF THE
WEEK. AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND POPS ARE CURRENTLY ON TAP.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
NO WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. FROM SYNOPSIS, BROAD
SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO REBUILD OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ACROSS
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL LIMIT SHOWER
COVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT BURSTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH FOR THE UPCOMING 06Z TAF
PERIOD. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE FROM LINES
OF DENSER CLOUDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
KEY WEST 90 82 89 81 / 10 10 30 30
MARATHON 90 82 90 81 / 10 10 30 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE...JAM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....AJP
DATA ACQUISITION.....AJP
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